Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36566776›Full record

ArticleInternational journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases2023

Quantifying excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 in The Gambia: a time-series analysis of three health and demographic surveillance systems.

Nuredin I Mohammed, Grant Mackenzie, Esu Ezeani, Mamadi Sidibeh, Lamin Jammeh, Golam Sarwar, Aji Kumba Folawiyo Saine, Bakary Sonko, Pierre Gomez, Bai Lamin Dondeh and 7 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
10citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

10 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Review
  2. Article
  3. Rethinking the evidence on COVID-19 in Africa.The Lancet. Infectious diseases · 2025
    Review
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in pregnant women during the first three COVID-19 waves in The Gambia.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2023
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

17 authors.

Nuredin I MohammedMedical Research Council Unit The Gambia at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Banjul, The Gambia. Electronic address: nuredin.mohammed@lshtm.ac.uk.
Grant MackenzieMedical Research Council Unit The Gambia at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Banjul, The Gambia; Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Melbourne, Australia.
Esu EzeaniMedical Research Council Unit The Gambia at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Banjul, The Gambia.
Mamadi SidibehMedical Research Council Unit The Gambia at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Banjul, The Gambia.
Lamin JammehMedical Research Council Unit The Gambia at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Banjul, The Gambia.
Golam SarwarMedical Research Council Unit The Gambia at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Banjul, The Gambia.
Aji Kumba Folawiyo SaineMedical Research Council Unit The Gambia at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Banjul, The Gambia.
Bakary SonkoMedical Research Council Unit The Gambia at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Banjul, The Gambia.
Pierre GomezMedical Research Council Unit The Gambia at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Banjul, The Gambia.
Bai Lamin DondehMedical Research Council Unit The Gambia at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Banjul, The Gambia.
M Jahangir HossainMedical Research Council Unit The Gambia at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Banjul, The Gambia.
Momodou JassehMedical Research Council Unit The Gambia at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Banjul, The Gambia.
Effua UsufMedical Research Council Unit The Gambia at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Banjul, The Gambia.
Andrew M PrenticeMedical Research Council Unit The Gambia at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Banjul, The Gambia.
David JeffriesMedical Research Council Unit The Gambia at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Banjul, The Gambia.
Umberto DalessandroMedical Research Council Unit The Gambia at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Banjul, The Gambia.
Anna RocaMedical Research Council Unit The Gambia at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Banjul, The Gambia. Electronic address: aroca@mrc.gm.

Funding

Medical Research Council MC_EX_MR/R006121/1Medical Research Council MC_PC_20028Medical Research Council MC_PC_MR/R020183/1Medical Research Council MC_UU_00031/8
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivesEstimates for COVID-19-related excess mortality for African populations using local data are needed to design and implement effective control policies.

methodsWe applied time-series analysis using data from three health and demographic surveillance systems in The Gambia (Basse, Farafenni, and Keneba) to examine pandemic-related excess mortality during 2020, when the first SARS-CoV-2 wave was observed, compared to the pre-pandemic period (2016-2019).

resultsAcross the three sites, average mortality during the pre-pandemic period and the total deaths during 2020 were 1512 and 1634, respectively (Basse: 1099 vs 1179, Farafenni: 316 vs 351, Keneba: 98 vs 104). The overall annual crude mortality rates per 100,000 (95% CI) were 589 (559, 619) and 599 (571, 629) for the pre-pandemic and 2020 periods, respectively. The adjusted excess mortality rate was 8.8 (-34.3, 67.6) per 100,000 person-month with the adjusted rate ratio (aRR) = 1.01 (0.94,1.11). The age-stratified analysis showed excess mortality in Basse for infants (aRR = 1.22 [1.04, 1.46]) and in Farafenni for the 65+ years age group (aRR = 1.19 [1, 1.44]).

conclusionWe did not find significant excess overall mortality in 2020 in The Gambia. However, some age groups may have been at risk of excess death. Public health response in countries with weak health systems needs to consider vulnerable age groups and the potential for collateral damage.

Indexed as

COVID-19AgedDemographyGambiaHumansInfantMortalityPandemicsSARS-CoV-2AfricaCOVID-19Excess mortalityHealth and demographic surveillance systemsThe Gambia

Identifiers

PMID36566776
PMCPMC9780021

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.