ArticleNature communications2022
Quantifying the role of variability in future intensification of heat extremes.
Article in Nature communications, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed.
- Projected heatwave hazards in an eastern Amazonian metropolis under contrasting CMIP6 scenarios.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Multi-hazard exposure and vulnerability drive rising agricultural risk in global breadbasket regions.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Temperature variability projections remain uncertain after constraining them to best performing Large Ensembles of individual Climate Models.Nature communications · 2025Article
- The pace of change of summertime temperature extremes.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- Decadal-scale variability and warming affect spring timing and forest growth across the western Great Lakes region.International journal of biometeorology · 2024Article
- Enhanced risk of record-breaking regional temperatures during the 2023-24 El Niño.Scientific reports · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Heat extremes have grown disproportionately since the advent of industrialization and are expected to intensify further under unabated greenhouse warming, spreading unevenly across the globe. However, amplification mechanisms are highly uncertain because of the complex interplay between regional physical responses to human forcing and the statistical properties of atmospheric temperatures. Here, focusing on the latter, we explain how and to what extent the leading moments of thermal distributions sway the future trajectories of heat extremes. Crucially, we show that daily temperature variability is the key to understanding global patterns of change in the frequency and severity of the extremes and their exacerbation in many places. Variability accounts for at least half of the highly differential regional sensitivities and may well outweigh the background warming. These findings provide fundamental insights for assessing the reliability of climate models and improving their future projections.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.