Assessing the pediatric subspecialty pipeline: it is all about the data source.

backgroundNational Resident Match Program (NRMP) data are often used to identify the pediatric subspecialty pipeline. Other data sources may provide greater accuracy.

methodsAnalysis of data from the NRMP and the American Board of Pediatrics (ABP) for 14 pediatric subspecialties from 2008 to 2020. We calculated, within each subspecialty, the annual number of first-year fellowship positions offered, the NRMP match rate, the actual number of fellows entering training (ABP data) relative to the number of positions in the match (fill rate), and the actual number of matriculating first-year fellows each year.

resultsFor all subspecialties and years, the fill rate was greater than the match rate. All subspecialties had an increase in the relative and absolute number of first-year fellows, with the largest increases seen in emergency medicine (73.3%) and critical care (68.9%). Except for adolescent medicine, all subspecialties had an absolute increase in the number of positions offered, with the largest increase in pulmonology (32.1%).

conclusionsNRMP data underestimate the actual number of first-year fellows entering subspecialty training. For all subspecialties, the number of first-year fellows has increased over time, indicating continued expansion in the pipeline for most. However, there remains great variation across subspecialties. IMPACT: Perceptions of the pipeline for the pediatric subspecialty workforce vary depending on the data source. The use of NMRP match data alone underestimates the number of matriculating trainees. The number of unmatched fellowship positions has created a perception of a diminishing number of pediatric subspecialty fellows. This study uses multiple data sources to better understand the actual number of fellows entering pediatric subspecialty training and demonstrates that the NRMP match rate alone underestimates the pipeline of the pediatric subspecialty workforce.