ArticleCancers2022
Long-Term Projections of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Japan and Decomposition Analysis of Changes in Cancer Burden, 2020-2054: An Empirical Validation Approach.
Article in Cancers, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
17 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 18 citations in OpenAlex.
- Evaluation and forecasting methods to estimate number of patients with non-Hodgkin lymphoma: a systematic literature review.Population health metrics · 2025Pooled it
- Image-guided moderately hypofractionated proton beam therapy for localized prostate cancer: 5-year outcomes of a phase II trial.Journal of radiation research · 2026Trial
- Forecasting colorectal cancer screening in Japan: regional and sex disparities threaten national targets.International journal of clinical oncology · 2026Article
- Impact of Clinicopathological and Institutional Factors on the Clinical Courses of Patients With Localized Prostate Cancer Initially Managed by Active Surveillance: An Analysis of Nationwide Real-World Data From Japan.International journal of urology : official journal of the Japanese Urological Association · 2026Observational
- Progress and Disparities in Lung Cancer Screening in Japan: A Bayesian Analysis Toward Achieving Health Japan 21 Targets.Cancers · 2026Article
- Global, regional and national cancer burden and trends of middle-aged and older populations: a GBD 2021-based analysis, prediction and prevention.Frontiers in oncology · 2026Article
- Comprehensive Genomic Profiling Testing for Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer in Advanced Elderly Patients: A Single-Center Retrospective Cohort Study.The Prostate · 2025Article
- Progress and inequality in child immunization in 38 African countries, 2000-2030: A spatio-temporal Bayesian analysis at national and sub-national levels.PLoS medicine · 2025Article
- Survival outcomes and prognostic factors in bladder cancer treated with radiotherapy.Journal of radiation research · 2025Article
- Breast Cancer Screening Participation and Internet Search Activity in a Japanese Population: Decade-Long Time-Series Study.JMIR cancer · 2025Article
- Projection of future gastric cancer incidence and health-care service demand by geographic area in Kanagawa, Japan.Cancer science · 2025Article
- Opposing impact of hypertension/diabetes following hormone therapy initiation and preexisting statins on castration resistant progression of nonmetastatic prostate cancer: a multicenter study.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Access, autonomy, and affordability: ethical and human rights issues surrounding multigene panel testing for cancer in Japan and Switzerland.Frontiers in genetics · 2024Article
- Cancer Prevalence Projections in Japan and Decomposition Analysis of Changes in Cancer Burden, 2020-2050: A Statistical Modeling Study.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2023Article
- Trends in Head and Neck Cancer Mortality from 1999 to 2019 in Japan: An Observational Analysis.Cancers · 2023Article
- Health-related quality of life in breast cancer patients in low-and-middle-income countries in Asia: a systematic review.Frontiers in global women's health · 2023Review
- Real-world Outcomes of First-line Platinum-based Chemotherapy in Patients Aged 80 Years or Older With Metastatic Urothelial Carcinoma.Cancer diagnosis & prognosisArticle
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
purposeThe aim of this study was to project new cancer cases/deaths forward to 2054, and decompose changes in cancer cases/deaths to assess the impact of demographic transitions on cancer burden.
methodsWe collected data on cancer cases/deaths up to 2019, empirically validated the projection performance of multiple statistical models, and selected optimal models by applying time series cross-validation.
resultsWe showed an increasing number of new cancer cases but decreasing number of cancer deaths in both genders, with a large burden attributed to population aging. We observed the increasing incidence rates in most cancer sites but reducing rates in some infection-associated cancers, including stomach and liver cancers. Colorectal and lung cancers were projected to remain as leading cancer burdens of both incidence and mortality in Japan over 2020-2054, while prostate and female breast cancers would be the leading incidence burdens among men and women, respectively.
conclusionsFindings from decomposition analysis require more supportive interventions for reducing mortality and improving the quality of life of Japanese elders. We emphasize the important role of governments and policymakers in reforming policies for controlling cancer risk factors, including oncogenic infections. The rapid increase and continued presence of those cancer burdens associated with modifiable risk factors warrant greater efforts in cancer control programs, specifically in enhancing cancer screening and controlling cancer risk factors in Japan.
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