The Impact of COVID-19 Quarantine on Tuberculosis and Diabetes Mellitus Cases: A Modelling Study.

COVID-19 has currently become a global pandemic and caused a high number of infected people and deaths. To restrain the coronavirus spread, many countries have implemented restrictions on people’s movement and outdoor activities. The enforcement of health emergencies such as quarantine has a positive impact on reducing the COVID-19 infection risk, but it also has unwanted influences on health, social, and economic sectors. Here, we developed a compartmental mathematical model for COVID-19 transmission dynamic accommodating quarantine process and including tuberculosis and diabetic people compartments. We highlighted the potential negative impact induced by quarantine implementation on the increasing number of people with tuberculosis and diabetes. The actual COVID-19 data recorded in Indonesia during the Delta and Omicron variant attacks were well-approximated by the model’s output. A positive relationship was indicated by a high value of Pearson correlation coefficient, r=0.9344 for Delta and r=0.8961 for Omicron with a significance level of p<0.05. By varying the value of the quarantine parameter, this study obtained that quarantine effectively reduces the number of COVID-19 but induces an increasing number of tuberculosis and diabetic people. In order to minimize these negative impacts, increasing public awareness about the dangers of TB transmission and implementing a healthy lifestyle were considered the most effective strategies based on the simulation. The insights and results presented in this study are potentially useful for relevant authorities to increase public awareness of the potential risk of TB transmission and to promote a healthy lifestyle during the implementation of quarantine.