Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36545367›Full record

ArticleEcology and evolution2022

Differences in initial abundances reveal divergent dynamic structures in Gause's predator-prey experiments.

Lina Kaya Mühlbauer, William Stanley Harpole, Adam Thomas Clark

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Ecology and evolution, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Lina Kaya MühlbauerInstitute of Biology University of Graz Graz Austria.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6493-2742
William Stanley HarpoleDepartment of Physiological Diversity Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ) Leipzig Germany.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3404-9174
Adam Thomas ClarkInstitute of Biology University of Graz Graz Austria.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8843-3278

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Improved understanding of complex dynamics has revealed insights across many facets of ecology, and has enabled improved forecasts and management of future ecosystem states. However, an enduring challenge in forecasting complex dynamics remains the differentiation between complexity and stochasticity, that is, to determine whether declines in predictability are caused by stochasticity, nonlinearity, or chaos. Here, we show how to quantify the relative contributions of these factors to prediction error using Georgii Gause's iconic predator-prey microcosm experiments, which, critically, include experimental replicates that differ from one another only in initial abundances. We show that these differences in initial abundances interact with stochasticity, nonlinearity, and chaos in unique ways, allowing us to identify the impacts of these factors on prediction error. Our results suggest that jointly analyzing replicate time series across multiple, distinct starting points may be necessary for understanding and predicting the wide range of potential dynamic types in complex ecological systems.

Indexed as

chaosempirical dynamic modelinginitial abundancemicrocosm experimentsnonlinear dynamicstime series analysis

Identifiers

PMID36545367
PMCPMC9760897

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.