Risk of suicide after diagnosis of severe physical health conditions: A retrospective cohort study of 47 million people.

Background: The diagnosis of a severe physical health condition can cause psychological distress and lead to severe depression. The association between severe physical health conditions and the risk of suicide, and how the risk of suicide changes in the months following diagnosis, are not clear. Methods: We estimated whether a diagnosis of severe physical health conditions is associated with an increase in the risk of death by suicide using a dataset based on the 2011 Census linked to hospital records and death registration records covering 47,354,696 people alive on 1 January 2017 in England. Patients diagnosed with a low-survival cancer, chronic ischaemic heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or degenerative neurological condition were matched to individuals using socio-demographic characteristics from the Census. Using the Aalen-Johansen estimator, we estimated the cumulative incidence of death by suicide occurring between 1 January 2017 and 31 December 2021 (registered by 31 December 2021) in patients and matched controls, adjusted for other potential confounders using inverse probability weighting. Findings: Diagnosis of severe conditions was associated with an increased risk of dying by suicide. One year after diagnosis, the rate of suicide was 21.6 (95% confidence intervals: 14.9-28.4, number of events (N): 39) per 100,000 low-survival cancer patients compared to 9.5 (5.6-14.6, N:16) per 100,000 matched controls. For COPD patients, the one-year suicide rate was 22.4 (19.4-25.5, N:208) per 100,000 COPD patients (matched controls: 10.6, 8.3-13.0, N:85), for ischaemic heart disease 16.1 (14.1-18.2, N:225) per 100,000 patients (matched controls: 8.8, 7.1-10.4, N:128), for degenerative neurological conditions 114.5 (49.6-194.7, N:11) per 100,000 patients. The increase in risk was more pronounced in the first six months after diagnosis or first treatment. Interpretation: A diagnosis of severe physical illness is associated with higher suicide risk. The interaction of physical and mental illness emphasises the importance of collaborative physical and mental health care in these patients. Funding: The Office for National Statistics. KES is the Laing Galazka chair in palliative care at King's College London, funded by an endowment from Cicely Saunders International and the Kirby Laing Foundation.