The Prevalence and 5-Year Incidence Rate of Cigarette Smoking and Water-Pipe Tobacco Smoking and Their Associated Factors among 15 to 80 Years Old Urban Population in Southeast Iran: Results from KERCADR Study.

Background: Cigarette and tobacco smoking are closely associated with chronic cardiovascular disease and lung cancer. We aimed to assess the prevalence and 5-year incidence rate (IR) of these two risk factors for cardiovascular diseases in Kerman, southeastern of Iran. Methods: 10015 individuals aged 15-80 were recruited to the study between 2014 and 2018 (Kerman coronary artery disease (CAD) risk factors study, KERCADRS) of which 2820 had also participated in the first phase (5 years earlier). We took fasting blood samples and collected demographic information and data on cigarette and water-pipe tobacco smoking (WPTS) through interviews. Findings: The overall prevalence of cigarette smoking increased from 8.1% in phase1 to 8.8% in phase 2. During the same period, the prevalence of WPTS increased from 10% to 14%, especially in the age groups of 15-45 years. The prevalence of opium dependance was higher among cigarette smokers compared to WPT users. The overall 5-year IR of cigarette and WPTS was 3.6 and 4.65 per 1000 person-years respectively. The highest IRs of cigarette smoking and WPTS were reported in the age group of 15-39 years, and IR of WPTS was higher among women. Obesity, diabetes, and hypertension associated with a reduced IRs of cigarette and WPTS. Conclusion: Over the past five years, the prevalence of cigarette smoking has increased slightly, but WPTS has increased more rapidly, especially among women. The highest prevalence of cigarette and WPT smoking was in the age groups of 15-39 years. Smoking is shifting from cigarette smoking to WPTS. Age- and gender-oriented interventions would help correct the unhealthy life style in the community and prevent further smoking-related morbidities and mortalities.