Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36536006›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2022

Explainable machine learning framework for predicting long-term cardiovascular disease risk among adolescents.

Haya Salah, Sharan Srinivas

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
13citing papers in PubMed
5.9field-weighted citation impact, top 3% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

13 citing papers in PubMed, 41 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Haya SalahDepartment of Industrial and Systems Engineering, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO, 65211, USA.
Sharan SrinivasDepartment of Industrial and Systems Engineering, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO, 65211, USA. SrinivasSh@missouri.edu.
University of Missouri · US

Funding

Wave IV Data CollectionP01HD031921 · NICHD · UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL · PI HARRIS, KATHLEEN MULLAN · 1994 to 2020
$86.1M
NICHD NIH HHS P01 HD031921
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Although cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death worldwide, over 80% of it is preventable through early intervention and lifestyle changes. Most cases of CVD are detected in adulthood, but the risk factors leading to CVD begin at a younger age. This research is the first to develop an explainable machine learning (ML)-based framework for long-term CVD risk prediction (low vs. high) among adolescents. This study uses longitudinal data from a nationally representative sample of individuals who participated in the Add Health study. A total of 14,083 participants who completed relevant survey questionnaires and health tests from adolescence to young adulthood were chosen. Four ML classifiers [decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and deep neural networks (DNN)] and 36 adolescent predictors are used to predict adulthood CVD risk. While all ML models demonstrated good prediction capability, XGBoost achieved the best performance (AUC-ROC: 84.5% and AUC-PR: 96.9% on testing data). Besides, critical predictors of long-term CVD risk and its impact on risk prediction are obtained using an explainable technique for interpreting ML predictions. The results suggest that ML can be employed to detect adulthood CVD very early in life, and such an approach may facilitate primordial prevention and personalized intervention.

Indexed as

Cardiovascular DiseasesAdolescentAdultHumansMachine LearningNeural Networks, ComputerRisk FactorsYoung Adult

Identifiers

PMID36536006
PMCPMC9763353
OpenAlexW4312093812

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.