ArticleJournal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA2023
Quantifying the impact of COVID-19 on essential health services: a comparison of interrupted time series analysis using Prophet and Poisson regression models.
Article in Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.
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Who cites it
11 citing papers in PubMed.
- Mortality trends in diabetes with proxy-defined steatotic liver disease in the United States, 1999-2023.Frontiers in endocrinology · 2026Article
- Practicability of Suicide Reduction Target in Korean Suicide Prevention Policy: Insights From Time Series Analysis.Journal of Korean medical science · 2025Article
- In-hospital trends of non-communicable disease mortality during the pandemic for patients without COVID-19 at a regional referral hospital in southwestern Uganda.BMC global and public health · 2025Article
- Trends and multi-model prediction of hepatitis B incidence in Xiamen.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Article
- The need to document lessons learnt and exemplary practices of maintaining essential health services during the COVID-19 pandemic.BMJ global health · 2024Article
- The effectiveness of community health worker training, equipping, and deployment in reducing COVID-19 infections and deaths in rural Western Kenya: A comparison of two counties.PLOS global public health · 2024Article
- Trend of the Tuberculous Pleurisy Notification Rate in Eastern China During 2017-2021: Spatiotemporal Analysis.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2023Article
- Regional differences in the utilisation of antenatal care and skilled birth attendant services during the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria: an interrupted time series analysis.BMJ global health · 2023Article
- Global Health Informatics: the state of research and lessons learned.Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA · 2023Article
- Health system resilience: quantifying the dynamic impact of environmental shocks on health service utilization using an interrupted time series and time-series forecasting approach in Western Province, Zambia.The journal of climate change and healthArticle
- Impact of COVID-19 on intrapartum care at public hospitals in the Sidama region, Ethiopia: A mixed-methods study.Women's health (London, England)Article
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Authors and funding
13 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) altered healthcare utilization patterns. However, there is a dearth of literature comparing methods for quantifying the extent to which the pandemic disrupted healthcare service provision in sub-Saharan African countries.
objectiveTo compare interrupted time series analysis using Prophet and Poisson regression models in evaluating the impact of COVID-19 on essential health services.
methodsWe used reported data from Uganda's Health Management Information System from February 2018 to December 2020. We compared Prophet and Poisson models in evaluating the impact of COVID-19 on new clinic visits, diabetes clinic visits, and in-hospital deliveries between March 2020 to December 2020 and across the Central, Eastern, Northern, and Western regions of Uganda.
resultsThe models generated similar estimates of the impact of COVID-19 in 10 of the 12 outcome-region pairs evaluated. Both models estimated declines in new clinic visits in the Central, Northern, and Western regions, and an increase in the Eastern Region. Both models estimated declines in diabetes clinic visits in the Central and Western regions, with no significant changes in the Eastern and Northern regions. For in-hospital deliveries, the models estimated a decline in the Western Region, no changes in the Central Region, and had different estimates in the Eastern and Northern regions.
conclusionsThe Prophet and Poisson models are useful in quantifying the impact of interruptions on essential health services during pandemics but may result in different measures of effect. Rigor and multimethod triangulation are necessary to study the true effect of pandemics on essential health services.
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