ArticleScandinavian journal of public health2023
Tobler's law and wavefront patterns in the spatial spread of COVID-19 across Europe during the Delta and Omicron waves.
Article in Scandinavian journal of public health, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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2 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
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Abstract
aimsEpidemic wavefront models predict the spread of medieval pandemics such as the plague well. Our aim was to explore whether they contribute to understanding the spread of COVID-19, the first truly global pandemic of the 21st century with its fast and frequent international travel links.
methodsWe analysed the spatial spread of reaching a threshold of very high incidence of new daily infections of the virus across European countries in the autumn of 2021 in which the Delta variant was dominant, as well as an even higher threshold of incidence in the subsequent spread of infections across the same set of countries during the winter of 2021/2022 when the Omicron variant of the virus became dominant.
resultsWe found patterns that are consistent with wavefront models for both periods of the pandemic in Europe.
conclusions
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