ArticleBMC health services research2022
Development of a model for predicting hospital beds shortage and optimal policies using system dynamics approach.
Article in BMC health services research, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Dimensions and components of hospital-at-home care: a systematic review.BMC health services research · 2024Pooled it
- High Bed Occupancy Rates in Internal Medicine Departments Are Associated with Lower Hand Hygiene Compliance.Medicina (Kaunas, Lithuania) · 2026Article
- Enhancing social participation in older adults with noncommunicable diseases: insights from system dynamics modeling.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Review
- Addressing the Knowledge Deficit in Hospital Bed Planning and Defining an Optimum Region for the Number of Different Types of Hospital Beds in an Effective Health Care System.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Review
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8 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundPolicymakers use simulation-based models to improve system feedback and model the reality of the problems in the system. This study uses the system dynamics approach to provide a model for predicting hospital bed shortages and determine the optimal policy in Shiraz, Southern Iran.
methodsThis study was designed based on Sterman's system dynamic modeling (SDM) process. Firstly, we determined the main variables affecting bed distribution using a mixed qualitative and quantitative study which includes scoping review, expert panel, Delphi, and DANP. Then, dynamic hypotheses were designed. Subsequently, we held several expert panels for designing the causal and stock-flow models, formulating and testing a simulation model, as well as developing various scenarios and policies.
resultsDynamic modeling process resulted in four scenarios. All of the scenarios predicted a shortage of national hospital beds over a 20-year time horizon. Then, four policies were developed based on the changes in the number of beds and capacity of home care services; finally, the optimal policy was determined.
conclusionsDue to the high cost of setting up hospital beds, developing and supporting cost-effective home care services, strengthening the insurance coverage of these services, and improving the quantity and quality of community care, considering the real needs of the community could be considered as an optimal option for the future of the city.
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