ArticlePLoS neglected tropical diseases2022
Voluntary vaccination may not stop monkeypox outbreak: A game-theoretic model.
Article in PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
11 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 26 citations in OpenAlex.
- Dynamics of global mpox epidemics, 1970-2025: a systematic review and meta-analysis of evolving transmissibility and intervention effects.BMJ global health · 2026Pooled it
- A fractional-order vaccination model to analyze the dynamics of Mpox Clade I and II with real data.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- A Compartmental Mathematical Model to Assess the Impact of Vaccination, Isolation, and Key Epidemiological Parameters on Mpox Control.Medical sciences (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- Revealing the complex dynamics of monkeypox epidemics in heterogeneous networks by the evolutionary game theory.Scientific reports · 2025Article
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- Behavioral game of quarantine during the monkeypox epidemic: Analysis of deterministic and fractional order approach.Heliyon · 2024Article
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- A fractional order Monkeypox model with protected travelers using the fixed point theorem and Newton polynomial interpolation.Healthcare analytics (New York, N.Y.) · 2023Article
- Monkeypox: a review of epidemiological modelling studies and how modelling has led to mechanistic insight.Epidemiology and infection · 2023Review
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Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Monkeypox (MPX) is a viral zoonotic disease that was endemic to Central and West Africa. However, during the first half of 2022, MPX spread to almost 60 countries all over the world. Smallpox vaccines are about 85% effective in preventing MPX infections. Our objective is to determine whether the vaccines should be mandated or whether voluntary use of the vaccine could be enough to stop the MPX outbreak. We incorporate a standard SVEIR compartmental model of MPX transmission into a game-theoretical framework. We study a vaccination game in which individuals decide whether or not to vaccinate by assessing their benefits and costs. We solve the game for Nash equilibria, i.e., the vaccination rates the individuals would likely adopt without any outside intervention. We show that, without vaccination, MPX can become endemic in previously non-endemic regions, including the United States. We also show that to "not vaccinate" is often an optimal solution from the individual's perspective. Moreover, we demonstrate that, for some parameter values, there are multiple equilibria of the vaccination game, and they exhibit a backward bifurcation. Thus, without centrally mandated minimal vaccination rates, the population could easily revert to no vaccination scenario.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.