ArticleBJS open2022
Nomogram to predict disease recurrence in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer undergoing rectal surgery after neoadjuvant therapy: retrospective cohort study.
Article in BJS open, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 9 citations in OpenAlex.
- Short- and long-term outcomes of neoadjuvant chemotherapy compared with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy for locally advanced rectal cancer: an updated meta-analysis.BMC gastroenterology · 2025Pooled it
- Multicenter phase II trial of transanal total mesorectal excision for rectal cancer: preliminary results.Surgical endoscopy · 2023Trial
- Efficacy of hypofractionated preoperative chemoradiotherapy in rectal cancer.Oncology letters · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
7 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
introductionPrognostic models can be used for predicting survival outcomes and guiding patient management. TNM staging alone is insufficient for predicting recurrence after chemoradiotherapy (CRT) and surgery for locally advanced rectal cancer. This study aimed to develop a nomogram to better predict cancer recurrence after CRT followed by total mesorectal excision (TME) and tailor postoperative management and follow-up. MATERIALS AND
methodsBetween 2002 and 2019, data were retrospectively collected on patients with rectal adenocarcinoma. Data on sex, age, carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level, tumour location, induction chemotherapy, adjuvant chemotherapy, tumour downsizing, perineural invasion, lymphovascular invasion, pathological stage, resection margins (R0 versus R1), and pelvic septic complications were analysed. The variables significantly associated with cancer recurrence were used to build a nomogram that was validated in both the training and validation cohorts. Model performance was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curve and area under the curve (AUC) analyses.
resultsAfter applying exclusion criteria, 634 patients with rectal adenocarcinoma were included in this study. Eight factors (CEA level, adjuvant chemotherapy, tumour downsizing, perineural invasion, lymphovascular invasion, pathological stage, resection margins (R0 versus R1), and pelvic septic complications) were identified as nomogram variables. Our nomogram showed good performance with an AUC of 0.74 and 0.75 in the training and validation cohorts respectively.
conclusionOur nomogram is a simple tool for predicting cancer recurrence in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer after neoadjuvant CRT followed by TME. It provides an individual risk prediction of recurrence to tailor surveillance.
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