Prognostic analysis of pT1-T2aN0M0 cervical adenocarcinoma based on random survival forest analysis and the generation of a predictive nomogram.

Background: The efficacy of adjuvant radiotherapy for postoperative patients with early-stage cervical adenocarcinoma who are lymph node-negative is still inconclusive. Establishing a nomogram to predict the prognosis of such patients could facilitate clinical decision-making. Methods: We recruited 4636 eligible patients with pT1-T2aN0M0 cervical adenocarcinoma between 2004 and 2016 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. Random survival forest (RSF) and conditional survival forest (CSF) model was used to assess the prognostic importance of each clinical characteristic variable. We identified independent prognostic factors associated with overall survival (OS) by univariate and multivariate Cox regression risk methods and then constructed a nomogram. We stratified patients based on nomogram risk scores and evaluated the survival benefit of different adjuvant therapies. To reduce confounding bias, we also used propensity score matching (PSM) to match the cohorts before performing survival analyses. Results: The RSF and CSF model identified several important variables that are associated with prognosis, including grade, age, radiotherapy and tumor size. Patients were randomly divided into training and validation groups at a ratio of 7:3. Multivariate cox analysis revealed that age, grade, tumor size, race, radiotherapy and histology were independent prognostic factors for overall survival. Using these variables, we then constructed a predictive nomogram. The C-index value for evaluating the prognostic nomogram fluctuated between 0.75 and 0.91. Patients were divided into three subgroups based on risk scores, and Kaplan-Meier (K-M) survival analysis revealed that in the low-risk group, postoperative chemotherapy alone was associated with a significantly worse OS than surgery alone. Following PSM, survival analysis showed that compared with surgery alone, radiotherapy was associated with a worse OS in the training group although there was no significant difference in the validation group. Conclusions: For patients with pT1-T2aN0M0 cervical adenocarcinoma, adjuvant treatments such as postoperative radiotherapy or chemotherapy, compared with surgery alone, are of no benefit with regards to patient survival. Our prognostic nomogram exhibits high accuracy for predicting the survival of patients with early-stage postoperative cervical adenocarcinoma.