ArticleJournal of the American Medical Directors Association2023
Projecting Long-Term Care Costs for Home and Community-Based Services in China from 2005 to 2050.
Article in Journal of the American Medical Directors Association, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed.
- Artificial neural network-driven approaches to improved forecasting of disability care expenditures in an aging Kingdom of Saudi Arabia population.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Global health 2050: the path to halving premature death by mid-century.Lancet (London, England) · 2024Review
- Forecasting Informal care needs of the urban-rural older adults in China based on microsimulation model.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Evaluating the impact of a pilot programme for home- and community-based services on long-term care needs among older adults in China.PloS one · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
10 authors.
Funding
Abstract
objectivesThe aim of this study was to estimate and project the trend in long-term care (LTC) costs for home and community-based services as a percentage of gross domestic product in China between 2005 and 2050.
designLongitudinal. SETTING AND
participantsWe used 61,249 observations from 37,702 adults age ≥65 years from waves 2005, 2008, 2011, 2014, and 2018 of the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Surveys.
methodsLTC costs for home and community-based services consisted of the monetary value of time spent on LTC and the direct LTC cost. We used the age-sex-residence-specific weights provided by the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Surveys to estimate the LTC costs from 2005 to 2018. We used a component-based model to project LTC costs, in which the 2-part model was used to estimate the average LTC costs and the multi-state Markov model approach was used to project the future population by age, sex, and disability state.
resultsThe percentage of older adults with disabilities was projected to increase from 6.1% in 2005 to 7.5% in 2020 and 9.6% in 2050. The total LTC cost for home and community-based services were projected to increase from 0.3% of gross domestic product in 2005 to 0.7% in 2020 and to 6.4% in 2050. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Policymakers in China should take urgent actions to delay the onset of disabilities among older adults, which would curb the increasing LTC costs and maintain the sustainability of the LTC policies.
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