ArticleInternational journal of environmental research and public health2022
Analysis of the Future Evolution of Biocapacity and Landscape Characteristics in the Agro-Pastoral Zone of Northern China.
Article in International journal of environmental research and public health, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
The Agro-Pastoral Zone of Northern China (AZNC) is an ecologically fragile zone. It is a challenge to create scientifically sound plans for environmental conservation and agro-pastoral development due to the lack of future evolution prediction, and analysis of biocapacity (BC) and landscape characteristics. Using the Globeland30 dataset from 2000 to 2020, this study simulated 2030 land use/land cover (LULC) scenarios, and analyzed the future evolution of BC and landscape patterns. The results show that: (1) The Logistic and CA-Markov models can reasonably simulate the LULC changes in the research area, with ROC indices over 0.9 and Kappa approaching 0.805, after considering the driving factors such as physical geography, regional climate, and socio-economic development. (2) From 2000 to 2030, the spatial distribution pattern of LULC does not change significantly, and cultivated land, grassland, and forest are still the dominant land types in the research area. The regional BC exhibits an increasing trend (+4.55 × 10
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