ArticleScientific reports2022
Long-term durability of immune responses to the BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 vaccines based on dosage, age and sex.
Article in Scientific reports, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 40 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
40 citing papers in PubMed, 54 citations in OpenAlex.
- Fractional BNT162b2 boosters induce durable immune responses after non-mRNA priming in Mongolia: a randomised controlled trial.Frontiers in immunology · 2026Trial
- A phase 3 randomized controlled trial of a COVID-19 recombinant vaccine S-268019-b versus ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 in Japanese adults.Scientific reports · 2024Trial
- Modeling the kinetics of the neutralizing antibody response against SARS-CoV-2 variants after several administrations of Bnt162b2.PLoS computational biology · 2023Trial
- AI-driven big data analysis and predictive modeling of infectious disease immunity: from correlates to causal, multiscale understanding.Archives of microbiology · 2026Review
- AI-driven big data analysis and predictive modeling of infectious disease immunity: from correlates to causal, multiscale understanding.Archives of microbiology · 2026Review
- mRNA vaccines against monkeypox: bridging immunoinformatics, structural vaccinology, and translational advances toward pan-orthopox immunity.Folia microbiologica · 2026Review
- AI-driven drug-target interaction prediction: current progress, challenges, and future roadmap for precision medicine.Journal of computer-aided molecular design · 2026Review
- Modeling of longitudinal immune profiles reveals distinct immunogenic signatures following five COVID-19 vaccinations among people living with HIV.Patterns (New York, N.Y.) · 2026Article
- Long-term immunity and protection against SARS-CoV-2 XBB.1.5 following homologous and heterologous mRNA and MVA vaccination.Frontiers in immunology · 2026Article
- Signatures of Trained Immunity Following mRNA Vaccination: Differences Between mRNA-1273 and BNT162b2.Journal of clinical immunology · 2025Article
- Establishing long-lasting vaccine immunity: insights from mRNA and adjuvanted protein platforms.NPJ vaccines · 2025Review
- Model-Informed Drug Development Applications and Opportunities in mRNA-LNP Therapeutics.Clinical pharmacology and therapeutics · 2025Review
- RNA-based cancer vaccines: mechanisms, clinical progress, and translational challenges.Immunologic research · 2025Review
- Estimating the decay of protective antibodies induced by SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccination and hybrid immunity.Npj viruses · 2025Article
- Modeling Antibody Kinetics Post-mRNA Booster Vaccination and Protection Durations Against SARS-CoV-2 Infection.Journal of medical virology · 2025Article
- Adjuvanted Protein Vaccines Boost RNA-Based Vaccines for Broader and More Potent Immune Responses.Vaccines · 2025Article
- A Multiscale Quantitative Systems Pharmacology Model for the Development and Optimization of mRNA Vaccines.CPT: pharmacometrics & systems pharmacology · 2025Article
- Nucleic acid vaccines: innovations, efficacy, and applications in at-risk populations.Frontiers in immunology · 2025Review
- Molecular ingredients of an immunogen for long-lasting IgG.Frontiers in immunology · 2025Review
- Mechanistic models of humoral kinetics following COVID-19 vaccination.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
9 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The lipid nanoparticle (LNP)-formulated mRNA vaccines BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 are a widely adopted multi vaccination public health strategy to manage the COVID-19 pandemic. Clinical trial data has described the immunogenicity of the vaccine, albeit within a limited study time frame. Here, we use a within-host mathematical model for LNP-formulated mRNA vaccines, informed by available clinical trial data from 2020 to September 2021, to project a longer term understanding of immunity as a function of vaccine type, dosage amount, age, and sex. We estimate that two standard doses of either mRNA-1273 or BNT162b2, with dosage times separated by the company-mandated intervals, results in individuals losing more than 99% humoral immunity relative to peak immunity by 8 months following the second dose. We predict that within an 8 month period following dose two (corresponding to the original CDC time-frame for administration of a third dose), there exists a period of time longer than 1 month where an individual has lost more than 99% humoral immunity relative to peak immunity, regardless of which vaccine was administered. We further find that age has a strong influence in maintaining humoral immunity; by 8 months following dose two we predict that individuals aged 18-55 have a four-fold humoral advantage compared to aged 56-70 and 70+ individuals. We find that sex has little effect on the immune response and long-term IgG counts. Finally, we find that humoral immunity generated from two low doses of mRNA-1273 decays at a substantially slower rate relative to peak immunity gained compared to two standard doses of either mRNA-1273 or BNT162b2. Our predictions highlight the importance of the recommended third booster dose in order to maintain elevated levels of antibodies.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.