Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36480931›Full record

ArticleThe Lancet. Global health2023

The cost of inaction on physical inactivity to public health-care systems: a population-attributable fraction analysis.

Andreia Costa Santos, Juana Willumsen, Filip Meheus, Andre Ilbawi, Fiona C Bull

Open access · goldAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in The Lancet. Global health, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 206 papers, 15 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
206citing papers in PubMed, 15 pooled it
78.8field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

206 citing papers in PubMed, 15 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 412 citations in OpenAlex.

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  4. Effects of the inhaled dose of air pollution on health: a systematic review.European respiratory review : an official journal of the European Respiratory Society · 2025
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  14. Determinants of physical activity in community-dwelling older adults: an umbrella review.The international journal of behavioral nutrition and physical activity · 2023
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146 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Andreia Costa SantosWHO, Geneva, Switzerland.
Juana WillumsenWHO, Geneva, Switzerland.
Filip MeheusWHO, Geneva, Switzerland.
Andre IlbawiWHO, Geneva, Switzerland.
Fiona C BullWHO, Geneva, Switzerland. Electronic address: bullf@who.int.
World Health Organization · CH

Funding

World Health Organization 001
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundPhysical inactivity is an important modifiable risk factor for non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and mental health conditions. We aimed to estimate the public health-care costs associated with these diseases because of physical inactivity, which will help policy makers to prioritise investment in policy actions to promote and enable more people to be more active.

methodsWe used a population-attributable fraction formula to estimate the direct public health-care costs of NCDs and mental health conditions for 2020-30. The disease outcomes that we included were incident cases of coronary heart disease, stroke, type 2 diabetes, hypertension, cancer (breast, colon, bladder, endometrial, oesophageal, gastric, and renal), dementia, and depression in adults aged at least 18 years. We used the most recent health and economic data evidence available for 194 countries.

findings499·2 million new cases of preventable major NCDs would occur globally by 2030 if the prevalence of physical inactivity does not change, with direct health-care costs of INT$520 billion. The global cost of inaction on physical inactivity would reach approximately $47·6 billion per year. Although 74% of new cases of NCDs would occur in low-income and middle-countries, high-income countries would bear a larger proportion (63%) of the economic costs. The cost of treatment and management of NCDs varied-although dementia accounted for only 3% of new preventable NCDs, the disease corresponded to 22% of all costs; type 2 diabetes accounted for 2% of new preventable cases but 9% of all costs; and cancers accounted for 1% of new preventable cases but 15% of all costs.

interpretationThis health and economic burden of physical inactivity is avoidable. Further investments in and implementation of known and effective policy interventions will support countries to reach the Sustainable Development Goal of reduction of NCD mortality by 2030.

fundingNone.

Indexed as

DementiaDiabetes Mellitus, Type 2Noncommunicable DiseasesAdolescentAdultCost of IllnessHealth Care CostsHumansPublic HealthSedentary Behavior

Identifiers

PMID36480931
PMCPMC9748301
OpenAlexW4311530576

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.