ArticleSurgical endoscopy2023
External validation of risk prediction scores in patients undergoing anatomic video-assisted thoracoscopic resection.
Article in Surgical endoscopy, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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2 citing papers in PubMed, 4 citations in OpenAlex.
- Is the Parsimonious Eurolung risk model a good predictor for all populations? An external validation study.Journal of cardiothoracic surgery · 2025Article
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8 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundEuroLung Risk scores were established to predict postoperative morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing anatomic lung resections. We aimed to perform an external validation of the EuroLung scores, which were calculated from data of the European Society of Thoracic Surgeons database, in our video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery cohort.
methodsAll available EuroLung scores were calculated for 718 patients scheduled for anatomic video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery resections between 2009 and 2019. Morbidity and mortality according to the definitions of the EuroLung scores were analyzed in a prospectively maintained database.
resultsOverall observed complication rate was 10.45%. Scores showed weak individual correlation (η = 0.155-0.174). The EuroLung1 app score showed the biggest area under the receiver operative characteristic (ROC) curve with 0.660. Binary logistic regression analysis showed that predicted postoperative forced expiratory volume in 1 s was associated with increased complications in both EuroLung1 and parsimonious EuroLung1 scores. Thirty-day mortality was 0.7% (predicted 1.10-1.40%) and was associated with predicted postoperative forced expiratory volume in 1 s for both EuroLung2 and parsimonious EuroLung2 scores. The EuroLung2 (2016) showed the biggest area under the ROC curve with 0.673. Only a very weak eta correlation between predicted and observed mortality was found for both aggregate EuroLung2, EuroLung2 (2016), EuroLung2 (2019), and parsimonious EuroLung2 (2016) (η = 0.025/0.015/0.011/0.009).
conclusionEuroLung scores help to estimate postoperative morbidity. However, even with the highest aggregate EuroLung scores possible only 50% suffer from postoperative morbidity. Although calibration of the scores was acceptable, discrimination between predicted and observed events was poor. Therefore, individual correlation between predicted and observed events is weak. Therefore, EuroLung scores may be best used to compare institutional quality of care to the European Society of Thoracic Surgeons database but should not be used to preclude patients from surgical treatment.
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