Comparison of the red blood cell indices based on accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity to predict one-year mortality in heart failure patients.

backgroundVarious investigations have specified the role of each RBC indices separately [including hemoglobin (Hb), hematocrit (HCT), mean corpuscular volume (MCV), mean corpuscular hemoglobin (MCH), mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration (MCHC), and red blood cell distribution width (RDW)] to predict the prognosis of acute heart failure (AHF) patients. However, in the current study, these variables were compared based on accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity to determine the best prognostic factor.

methodsOf 734 heart failure patients referred to the emergency department, 400 cases were enrolled based on the inclusion and exclusion criteria. Data of them were documented, and patients were followed for one year. Eventually, the association of clinical variables and RBC indices with one-year mortality was explored.

resultsThe study included 226 (56%) men and 174 (44%) women with a median age of 66 years. Body Mass Index (HR 1.098, p = 0.016), Hb (HR 0.728, p = 0.024), HTC (HR 0.875, p = 0.066), MCHC (HR 0.795, p = 0.037), and RDW-CV (HR 1.174, p = 0.006) were confirmed as predictors of long-term mortality. Despite confirming the predictive role of these variables by ROC curves, their sensitivity and specificity were reported as follows: [72% and 50% for Hb], [75% and 52% for  HCT], [88% and 27% for MCHC], and [49% and 81% for RDW]. In addition, stratified groups of patients, based on normal cut-off values obtained from scientific literature, had significantly different survival in Kaplan-Meier analyses.

conclusionWhilst proving the predictive role of Hb,  HCT, MCHC, and RDW in AHF patients, the most sensitive measurement was MCHC and the most specific one was RDW; therefore, these variables should be considered for risk stratification purposes of AHF patients in daily clinical practice.