Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36474414›Full record

ArticleInternational journal of epidemiology2023

Exploring the impact of selection bias in observational studies of COVID-19: a simulation study.

Louise A C Millard, Alba Fernández-Sanlés, Alice R Carter, Rachael A Hughes, Kate Tilling, Tim P Morris, Daniel Major-Smith, Gareth J Griffith, Gemma L Clayton, Emily Kawabata and 3 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in International journal of epidemiology, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 25 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
25citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

25 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Trial
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Review
  11. Article
  12. Review
  13. Article
  14. Review
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Observational
  19. Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors.

Louise A C MillardMRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-4787-8411
Alba Fernández-SanlésMRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
Alice R CarterMRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-2817-4195
Rachael A HughesMRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
Kate TillingMRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
Tim P MorrisMRC Clinical Trials Unit, University College London, London, UK.
Daniel Major-SmithMRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
Gareth J GriffithMRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-0481-3175
Gemma L ClaytonMRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
Emily KawabataMRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
George Davey SmithMRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-1407-8314
Deborah A LawlorMRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
Maria Carolina BorgesMRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.

Funding

British Heart Foundation AA/18/1/34219British Heart Foundation CH/F/20/90003Department of Health NF-0616-10102Medical Research Council G9815508Medical Research Council MC_PC_15018Medical Research Council MC_PC_17228Medical Research Council MC_PC_19009Medical Research Council MC_QA137853Medical Research Council MC_UU_00004/07Medical Research Council MC_UU_00011/1Medical Research Council MC_UU_00011/3Medical Research Council MC_UU_00011/6Medical Research Council MC_UU_00032/1Medical Research Council MC_UU_12023/21Medical Research Council MC_UU_12023/29Wellcome TrustWellcome Trust 215408/Z/19/ZWellcome Trust 217065/Z/19/ZWellcome Trust 221574/Z/20/Z
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundNon-random selection of analytic subsamples could introduce selection bias in observational studies. We explored the potential presence and impact of selection in studies of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 prognosis.

methodsWe tested the association of a broad range of characteristics with selection into COVID-19 analytic subsamples in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) and UK Biobank (UKB). We then conducted empirical analyses and simulations to explore the potential presence, direction and magnitude of bias due to this selection (relative to our defined UK-based adult target populations) when estimating the association of body mass index (BMI) with SARS-CoV-2 infection and death-with-COVID-19.

resultsIn both cohorts, a broad range of characteristics was related to selection, sometimes in opposite directions (e.g. more-educated people were more likely to have data on SARS-CoV-2 infection in ALSPAC, but less likely in UKB). Higher BMI was associated with higher odds of SARS-CoV-2 infection and death-with-COVID-19. We found non-negligible bias in many simulated scenarios.

conclusionsAnalyses using COVID-19 self-reported or national registry data may be biased due to selection. The magnitude and direction of this bias depend on the outcome definition, the true effect of the risk factor and the assumed selection mechanism; these are likely to differ between studies with different target populations. Bias due to sample selection is a key concern in COVID-19 research based on national registry data, especially as countries end free mass testing. The framework we have used can be applied by other researchers assessing the extent to which their results may be biased for their research question of interest.

Indexed as

COVID-19AdultBiasChildHumansLongitudinal StudiesObservational Studies as TopicSARS-CoV-2Selection BiasALSPACCOVID-19misclassification biasSARS-CoV-2 infectionSelection biasUK Biobank

Identifiers

PMID36474414
PMCPMC9908043

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.