ArticleGastro hep advances2022
Risk Prediction of Pancreatic Cancer in Patients With Abnormal Morphologic Findings Related to Chronic Pancreatitis: A Machine Learning Approach.
Article in Gastro hep advances, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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5 citing papers in PubMed, 11 citations in OpenAlex.
- Advancing Tumor Treatment Through Artificial Intelligence and Mathematical Modeling: A Comprehensive Review.Health science reports · 2026Article
- Slowly progressive type 1 diabetes and female sex as associated factors for pancreatic abnormalities on diagnostic imaging indicating precancerous potential.BMJ open diabetes research & care · 2025Article
- Article
- Applications of Machine Learning (ML) and Mathematical Modeling (MM) in Healthcare with Special Focus on Cancer Prognosis and Anticancer Therapy: Current Status and Challenges.Pharmaceutics · 2024Review
- Review
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6 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
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Abstract
BACKGROUND AND
aimsA significant factor contributing to poor survival in pancreatic cancer is the often late stage at diagnosis. We sought to develop and validate a risk prediction model to facilitate the distinction between chronic pancreatitis-related vs potential early pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC)-associated changes on pancreatic imaging.
methodsIn this retrospective cohort study, patients aged 18-84 years whose abdominal computed tomography/magnetic resonance imaging reports indicated duct dilatation, atrophy, calcification, cyst, or pseudocyst between January 2008 and November 2019 were identified. The outcome of interest is PDAC in 3 years. More than 100 potential predictors were extracted. Random survival forests approach was used to develop and validate risk models. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard model was applied to estimate the effect of the covariates on the risk of PDAC.
resultsThe cohort consisted of 46,041 (mean age 66.4 years). The 3-year incidence rate was 4.0 (95% confidence interval CI 3.6-4.4)/1000 person-years of follow-up. The final models containing age, weight change, duct dilatation, and either alkaline phosphatase or total bilirubin had good discrimination and calibration (c-indices 0.81). Patients with pancreas duct dilatation and at least another morphological feature in the absence of calcification had the highest risk (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 14.15, 95% CI 8.7-22.6), followed by patients with calcification and duct dilatation (aHR = 7.28, 95% CI 4.09-12.96), and patients with duct dilation only (aHR = 6.22, 95% CI 3.86-10.03), compared with patients with calcifications alone as the reference group.
conclusionThe study characterized the risk of pancreatic cancer among patients with 5 abnormal morphologic findings based on radiology reports and demonstrated the ability of prediction algorithms to provide improved risk stratification of pancreatic cancer in these patients.
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