ArticleRoyal Society open science2022
Estimating Zika virus attack rates and risk of Zika virus-associated neurological complications in Colombian capital cities with a Bayesian model.
Article in Royal Society open science, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed, 3 citations in OpenAlex.
- Estimating transmissibility of Zika virus in Colombia in the presence of surveillance bias.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Zika virus induces monocyte recruitment in the immunocompetent adult brain driving chronic inflammation.Frontiers in immunology · 2025Article
- Estimating Zika virus attack rates and risk of Zika virus-associated neurological complications in Colombian capital cities with a Bayesian model.Royal Society open science · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
8 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Zika virus (ZIKV) is a mosquito-borne pathogen that caused a major epidemic in the Americas in 2015-2017. Although the majority of ZIKV infections are asymptomatic, the virus has been associated with congenital birth defects and neurological complications (NC) in adults. We combined multiple data sources to improve estimates of ZIKV infection attack rates (IARs), reporting rates of Zika virus disease (ZVD) and the risk of ZIKV-associated NC for 28 capital cities in Colombia. ZVD surveillance data were combined with post-epidemic seroprevalence data and a dataset on ZIKV-associated NC in a Bayesian hierarchical model. We found substantial heterogeneity in ZIKV IARs across cities. The overall estimated ZIKV IAR across the 28 cities was 0.38 (95% CrI: 0.17-0.92). The estimated ZVD reporting rate was 0.013 (95% CrI: 0.004-0.024), and 0.51 (95% CrI: 0.17-0.92) cases of ZIKV-associated NC were estimated to be reported per 10 000 ZIKV infections. When we assumed the same ZIKV IAR across sex or age group, we found important spatial heterogeneities in ZVD reporting rates and the risk of being reported as a ZVD case with NC. Our results highlight how additional data sources can be used to overcome biases in surveillance data and estimate key epidemiological parameters.
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