Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36465136›Full record

ReviewiScience2022

Insights into the quantification and reporting of model-related uncertainty across different disciplines.

Emily G Simmonds, Kwaku Peprah Adjei, Christoffer Wold Andersen, Janne Cathrin Hetle Aspheim, Claudia Battistin, Nicola Bulso, Hannah M Christensen, Benjamin Cretois, Ryan Cubero, Iván A Davidovich and 33 more

Abstract readReview
In one paragraph

Review in iScience, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
6citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

6 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Review
  2. PeerJ · 2026
    Article
  3. Review
  4. Computational Metagenomics: State of the Art.International journal of molecular sciences · 2025
    Review
  5. Article
  6. Uncertainty Quantification for Epidemic Risk Management: Case of SARS-CoV-2 in Morocco.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

43 authors.

Emily G SimmondsDepartment of Mathematical Sciences, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Trøndelag 7034, Norway.
Kwaku Peprah AdjeiDepartment of Mathematical Sciences, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Trøndelag 7034, Norway.
Christoffer Wold AndersenDepartment of Sociology and Political Science, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Trøndelag 7491, Norway.
Janne Cathrin Hetle AspheimDepartment of Mathematical Sciences, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Trøndelag 7034, Norway.
Claudia BattistinKavli Institute for Systems Neuroscience and Centre for Neural Computation, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim 7491, Norway.
Nicola BulsoKavli Institute for Systems Neuroscience and Centre for Neural Computation, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim 7491, Norway.
Hannah M ChristensenDepartment of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, Oxfordshire OX1 3PU, UK.
Benjamin CretoisNorwegian Institute for Nature Research, PO Box 5685, Torgarden, Trondheim, Trøndelag 7485, Norway.
Ryan CuberoKavli Institute for Systems Neuroscience and Centre for Neural Computation, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim 7491, Norway.
Iván A DavidovichKavli Institute for Systems Neuroscience and Centre for Neural Computation, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim 7491, Norway.
Lisa DickelThe Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Trøndelag 7491, Norway.
Benjamin DunnDepartment of Mathematical Sciences, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Trøndelag 7034, Norway.
Etienne Dunn-SigouinBjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Vestland 5007, Norway.
Karin DyrstadDepartment of Sociology and Political Science, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Trøndelag 7491, Norway.
Sigurd EinumThe Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Trøndelag 7491, Norway.
Donata GiglioThe Department of Atmospheric and Ocean Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309-0311, USA.
Haakon GjerløwPeace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), Oslo, Østlandet 0186, Norway.
Amélie GodefroidtKU Leuven, 3000 Leuven, Belgium.
Ricardo González-GilObservatorio Marino de Asturias (OMA), Departamento de Biología de Organismos y Sistemas, University of Oviedo, 33071 Oviedo, Spain.
Soledad Gonzalo CognoKavli Institute for Systems Neuroscience and Centre for Neural Computation, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim 7491, Norway.
Fabian GroßeDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, Lanarkshire G1 1XH, UK.
Paul HalloranFaculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter, Devon EX4 4SB, UK.
Mari F JensenBjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Vestland 5007, Norway.
John James KennedyMet Office, Exeter Devon EX1 3PB, UK.
Peter Egge LangsætherDepartment of Political Science, University of Oslo, Oslo, Østlandet 0317, Norway.
Jack H LaverickDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, Lanarkshire G1 1XH, UK.
Debora LederbergerSchweizerisches Epilepsie Zentrum, Klinik Lengg, Zürich 8008, Switzerland.
Camille LiNORCE Norwegian Research Centre AS, Bergen, Vestland 5838, Norway.
Elizabeth G MandevilleDepartment of Integrative Biology, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada.
Caitlin MandevilleThe Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Trøndelag 7491, Norway.
Espen MoeDepartment of Sociology and Political Science, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Trøndelag 7491, Norway.
Tobias Navarro SchröderKavli Institute for Systems Neuroscience and Centre for Neural Computation, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim 7491, Norway.
David NunanNuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, Oxfordshire OX2 6GG, UK.
Jorge Sicacha-ParadaDepartment of Mathematical Sciences, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Trøndelag 7034, Norway.
Melanie Rae SimpsonDepartment of Public Health and Nursing, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Trøndelag 7030, Norway.
Emma Sofie SkarsteinDepartment of Mathematical Sciences, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Trøndelag 7034, Norway.
Clemens SpensbergerBjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Vestland 5007, Norway.
Richard StevensOxford Institute for Digital Health, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, Oxfordshire OX2 6GG, UK.
Aneesh C SubramanianThe Department of Atmospheric and Ocean Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309-0311, USA.
Lea SvendsenBjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Vestland 5007, Norway.
Ole Magnus TheisenDepartment of Sociology and Political Science, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Trøndelag 7491, Norway.
Connor WatretDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, Lanarkshire G1 1XH, UK.
Robert B O'HaraDepartment of Mathematical Sciences, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Trøndelag 7034, Norway.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Quantifying uncertainty associated with our models is the only way we can express how much we know about any phenomenon. Incomplete consideration of model-based uncertainties can lead to overstated conclusions with real-world impacts in diverse spheres, including conservation, epidemiology, climate science, and policy. Despite these potentially damaging consequences, we still know little about how different fields quantify and report uncertainty. We introduce the "sources of uncertainty" framework, using it to conduct a systematic audit of model-related uncertainty quantification from seven scientific fields, spanning the biological, physical, and political sciences. Our interdisciplinary audit shows no field fully considers all possible sources of uncertainty, but each has its own best practices alongside shared outstanding challenges. We make ten easy-to-implement recommendations to improve the consistency, completeness, and clarity of reporting on model-related uncertainty. These recommendations serve as a guide to best practices across scientific fields and expand our toolbox for high-quality research.

Indexed as

Statistical physics

Identifiers

PMID36465136
PMCPMC9712693

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.