ArticleFrontiers in public health2022
A 12-month projection to September 2022 of the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK using a dynamic causal model.
Article in Frontiers in public health, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Predictive models for health outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2, including the effect of vaccination: a systematic review.Systematic reviews · 2024Pooled it
- Dynamic causal models in infectious disease epidemiology-an assessment of their predictive validity based on the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK 2020 to 2024.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Estimating the value of face coverings during the COVID-19 epidemic: a dynamic causal modelling study.BMJ public health · 2025Article
- A follow up report validating long term predictions of the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK using a dynamic causal model.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Using a Dynamic Causal Model to validate previous predictions and offer a 12-month forecast of the long-term effects of the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
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Abstract
Objectives: Predicting the future UK COVID-19 epidemic allows other countries to compare their epidemic with one unfolding without public health measures except a vaccine program. Methods: A Dynamic Causal Model was used to estimate key model parameters of the UK epidemic, such as vaccine effectiveness and increased transmissibility of Alpha and Delta variants, the effectiveness of the vaccine program roll-out and changes in contact rates. The model predicts the future trends in infections, long-COVID, hospital admissions and deaths. Results: Two-dose vaccination given to 66% of the UK population prevents transmission following infection by 44%, serious illness by 86% and death by 93%. Despite this, with no other public health measures used, cases will increase from 37 million to 61 million, hospital admissions from 536,000 to 684,000 and deaths from 136,000 to 142,000 over 12 months. A retrospective analysis (conducted after the original submission of this report) allowed a comparison of these predictions of morbidity and mortality with actual outcomes. Conclusion: Vaccination alone will not control the epidemic. Relaxation of mitigating public health measures carries several risks, which include overwhelming the health services, the creation of vaccine resistant variants and the economic cost of huge numbers of acute and chronic cases.
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