Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36447293›Full record

ArticleBMC medicine2022

Retinal age gap as a predictive biomarker of stroke risk.

Zhuoting Zhu, Wenyi Hu, Ruiye Chen, Ruilin Xiong, Wei Wang, Xianwen Shang, Yifan Chen, Katerina Kiburg, Danli Shi, Shuang He and 7 more

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC medicine, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 59 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
59citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
9.5field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

59 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 77 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. AI-driven multimodal retinal imaging for early detection and risk stratification of vascular and neurodegenerative diseases.Graefe's archive for clinical and experimental ophthalmology = Albrecht von Graefes Archiv fur klinische und experimentelle Ophthalmologie · 2026
    Review
  5. Predicting stroke risk using retinal imaging with artificial intelligence: a scoping review of current evidence.Graefe's archive for clinical and experimental ophthalmology = Albrecht von Graefes Archiv fur klinische und experimentelle Ophthalmologie · 2026
    Review
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Redefining Stroke Care with Artificial Intelligence: Recent Advances.Current neurology and neuroscience reports · 2026
    Review
  12. Article
  13. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

17 authors at 6 institutions in 3 countries.

Zhuoting Zhu *Department of Ophthalmology, Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences, Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital, Guangzhou, China.
Wenyi Hu *Department of Ophthalmology, Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences, Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital, Guangzhou, China.
Ruiye Chen *Department of Ophthalmology, Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences, Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital, Guangzhou, China.
Ruilin XiongState Key Laboratory of Ophthalmology, Zhongshan Ophthalmic Center, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
Wei WangState Key Laboratory of Ophthalmology, Zhongshan Ophthalmic Center, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
Xianwen ShangDepartment of Ophthalmology, Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences, Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital, Guangzhou, China.
Yifan ChenDepartment of Ophthalmology, Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences, Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital, Guangzhou, China.
Katerina KiburgCentre for Eye Research Australia, Ophthalmology, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia.
Danli ShiState Key Laboratory of Ophthalmology, Zhongshan Ophthalmic Center, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
Shuang HeState Key Laboratory of Ophthalmology, Zhongshan Ophthalmic Center, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
Yu HuangDepartment of Ophthalmology, Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences, Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital, Guangzhou, China.
Xueli ZhangDepartment of Ophthalmology, Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences, Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital, Guangzhou, China.
Shulin TangDepartment of Ophthalmology, Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences, Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital, Guangzhou, China.
Jieshan ZengDepartment of Ophthalmology, Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences, Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital, Guangzhou, China.
Honghua YuDepartment of Ophthalmology, Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences, Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital, Guangzhou, China.
Xiaohong YangDepartment of Ophthalmology, Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences, Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital, Guangzhou, China. syyangxh@scut.edu.cn.
Mingguang HeDepartment of Ophthalmology, Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences, Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital, Guangzhou, China. mingguang.he@unimelb.edu.au.
Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital · CNSun Yat-sen University · CNCentre for Eye Research Australia · AUGuangdong Academy of Medical Sciences · CNJohn Radcliffe Hospital · GBUniversity of Melbourne · AU

Funding

Medical Research Council MC_PC_17228Medical Research Council MC_QA137853
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe aim of this study is to investigate the association of retinal age gap with the risk of incident stroke and its predictive value for incident stroke.

methodsA total of 80,169 fundus images from 46,969 participants in the UK Biobank cohort met the image quality standard. A deep learning model was constructed based on 19,200 fundus images of 11,052 disease-free participants at baseline for age prediction. Retinal age gap (retinal age predicted based on the fundus image minus chronological age) was generated for the remaining 35,917 participants. Stroke events were determined by data linkage to hospital records on admissions and diagnoses, and national death registers, whichever occurred earliest. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate the effect of retinal age gap on risk of stroke. Logistic regression models were used to estimate the predictive value of retinal age and well-established risk factors in 10-year stroke risk.

resultsA total of 35,304 participants without history of stroke at baseline were included. During a median follow-up of 5.83 years, 282 (0.80%) participants had stroke events. In the fully adjusted model, each one-year increase in the retinal age gap was associated with a 4% increase in the risk of stroke (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.04, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.00-1.08, P = 0.029). Compared to participants with retinal age gap in the first quintile, participants with retinal age gap in the fifth quintile had significantly higher risks of stroke events (HR = 2.37, 95% CI: 1.37-4.10, P = 0.002). The predictive capability of retinal age alone was comparable to the well-established risk factor-based model (AUC=0.676 vs AUC=0.661, p=0.511).

conclusionsWe found that retinal age gap was significantly associated with incident stroke, implying the potential of retinal age gap as a predictive biomarker of stroke risk.

Indexed as

StrokeBiomarkersDisease-Free SurvivalHospitalizationHumansLogistic ModelsBiomarkersBiomarkerPredictionRetinal ageStroke

Identifiers

PMID36447293
PMCPMC9710167
OpenAlexW4310595034

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.