Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36445971›Full record

ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2022

Long-term benefits of nonpharmaceutical interventions for endemic infections are shaped by respiratory pathogen dynamics.

Rachel E Baker, Chadi M Saad-Roy, Sang Woo Park, Jeremy Farrar, C Jessica E Metcalf, Bryan T Grenfell

Open access · greenAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
16citing papers in PubMed
2.9field-weighted citation impact, top 8% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

16 citing papers in PubMed, 22 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Trial
  2. Article
  3. Review
  4. Article
  5. Susceptible host dynamics explain pathogen resilience to perturbations.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
    Article
  6. Article
  7. Susceptible host dynamics explain pathogen resilience to perturbations.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025
    Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Dynamics in a behavioral-epidemiological model for individual adherence to a nonpharmaceutical intervention.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023
    Article
  14. Wearing masks to prevent one epidemic may mask another.Journal of infection prevention · 2023
    Article
  15. Individual costs and societal benefits of interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023
    Article
  16. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.

Rachel E BakerDepartment of Epidemiology, Brown School of Public Health, Providence, RI 02903.ORCID 0000-0002-2661-8103
Chadi M Saad-RoyLewis-Sigler Institute for Integrative Genomics, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540.ORCID 0000-0002-2217-3071
Sang Woo ParkDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.ORCID 0000-0003-2202-3361
Jeremy FarrarWellcome Trust, London, UK.
C Jessica E MetcalfDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.ORCID 0000-0003-3166-7521
Bryan T GrenfellDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.
Princeton University · USWellcome Trust · GB

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including mask wearing, have proved highly effective at reducing the transmission of endemic infections. A key public health question is whether NPIs could continue to be implemented long term to reduce the ongoing burden from endemic pathogens. Here, we use epidemiological models to explore the impact of long-term NPIs on the dynamics of endemic infections. We find that the introduction of NPIs leads to a strong initial reduction in incidence, but this effect is transient: As susceptibility increases, epidemics return while NPIs are in place. For low

Indexed as

COVID-19EpidemicsDisease OutbreaksEpidemiological ModelsHumansPublic HealthdynamicsmaskingSARS-CoV-2

Identifiers

PMID36445971
PMCPMC9894244
OpenAlexW4310570507

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.