Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36444329›Full record

ArticleJACC. Asia2022

Machine Learning Risk Prediction for Incident Heart Failure in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation.

Yasuhiro Hamatani, Hidehisa Nishi, Moritake Iguchi, Masahiro Esato, Hikari Tsuji, Hiromichi Wada, Koji Hasegawa, Hisashi Ogawa, Mitsuru Abe, Shunichi Fukuda and 2 more

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in JACC. Asia, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
17citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
4.3field-weighted citation impact, top 5% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

17 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 26 citations in OpenAlex.

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  6. Polygenic risk-based prediction of heart failure in young patients with atrial fibrillation: an analysis from UK Biobank.Europace : European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology : journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.

Yasuhiro HamataniDepartment of Cardiology, National Hospital Organization Kyoto Medical Center, Kyoto, Japan.
Hidehisa NishiDivision of Neurosurgery, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada.
Moritake IguchiDepartment of Cardiology, National Hospital Organization Kyoto Medical Center, Kyoto, Japan.
Masahiro EsatoDepartment of Arrhythmia, Ogaki Tokushukai Hospital, Gifu, Japan.
Hikari TsujiTsuji Clinic, Kyoto, Japan.
Hiromichi WadaDivision of Translational Research, National Hospital Organization Kyoto Medical Center, Kyoto, Japan.
Koji HasegawaDivision of Translational Research, National Hospital Organization Kyoto Medical Center, Kyoto, Japan.
Hisashi OgawaDepartment of Cardiology, National Hospital Organization Kyoto Medical Center, Kyoto, Japan.
Mitsuru AbeDepartment of Cardiology, National Hospital Organization Kyoto Medical Center, Kyoto, Japan.
Shunichi FukudaDepartment of Neurosurgery, National Hospital Organization Kyoto Medical Center, Kyoto, Japan.
Masaharu AkaoDepartment of Cardiology, National Hospital Organization Kyoto Medical Center, Kyoto, Japan.
Fushimi AF Registry Investigators
Kyoto Medical Center · JPFukuoka Tokushukai Hospital · JPSt. Michael's Hospital · CAUji Hospital · JP

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) increases the risk of heart failure (HF); however, little focus is placed on the risk stratification for, and prevention of, incident HF in patients with AF. Objectives: This study aimed to construct and validate a machine learning (ML) prediction model for HF hospitalization in patients with AF. Methods: The Fushimi AF Registry is a community-based prospective survey of patients with AF in Fushimi-ku, Kyoto, Japan. We divided the data set of the registry into derivation (n = 2,383) and validation (n = 2,011) cohorts. An ML model was built to predict the incidence of HF hospitalization using the derivation cohort, and predictive ability was examined using the validation cohort. Results: HF hospitalization occurred in 606 patients (14%) during a median follow-up period of 4.4 years in the entire registry. Data of transthoracic echocardiography and biomarkers were frequently nominated as important predictive variables across all 6 ML models. The ML model based on a random forest algorithm using 7 variables (age, history of HF, creatinine clearance, cardiothoracic ratio on x-ray, left ventricular [LV] ejection fraction, LV end-systolic diameter, and LV asynergy) had high prediction performance (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve [AUC]: 0.75) and was significantly superior to the Framingham HF risk model (AUC: 0.67; Conclusions: The ML model revealed important predictors and helped us to stratify the risk of HF, providing opportunities for the prevention of HF in patients with AF.

Indexed as

AF, atrial fibrillationatrial fibrillationAUC, area under the receiver operating characteristics curveheart failureHF, heart failureLV, left ventricularmachine learningML, machine learningrisk predictionSHAP, Shapley Additive exPlanation

Identifiers

PMID36444329
PMCPMC9700042
OpenAlexW4307831606

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.