Forecasting medical state transition using machine learning methods.

Early circulatory failure detection is an effective way to reduce medical fatigue and improve state pre-warning ability. Instead of using 0-1 original state, a transformed state is proposed in this research, which reflects how the state is transformed. The performance of the proposed method is compared with the original method under three models, including logistic regression, AdaBoost and XGBoost. The results show that the model XGBoost generally has the best performance measured by AUC, F1 and Sensitivity with values around 0.93, 0.91 and 0.90, at the prediction gaps 5, 10 and 20 separately. Under the model XGBoost, the method with transformed response variable has significantly better performance than that with the original response variable, with the performance metrics being around 1% to 4% higher, and the t values are all significant under the level 0.01. In order to explore the model performance under different baseline information, a subgroup analysis is conducted under sex, age, weight and height. The results demonstrate that sex and age have more significant influence on the model performance especially at the higher gaps than weight and height.