ArticleThe British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners2023
Performance of the SCORE and Globorisk cardiovascular risk prediction models: a prospective cohort study in Dutch general practice.
Article in The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
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6 citing papers in PubMed.
- External validation and recalibration of cardiovascular risk scores for prediction of 10-year risk of fatal cardiovascular disease: a prospective, observational, population-based cohort analysis of adults in Mexico City.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2026Article
- Mapping and evaluation of global and country-specific cardiovascular disease risk prediction models.Future cardiology · 2026Review
- Article
- Machine learning for predicting cardiovascular events in older adults with type 2 diabetes using Medicare claims and electronic health records.Journal of clinical epidemiology · 2025Article
- External validation and recalibration of office- and laboratory-based cardiovascular risk scores for prediction of 10-year risk of fatal cardiovascular disease in 112,262 adults in Mexico City.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Cardiovascular risk assessment methods yield unequal risk predictions: a large cross-sectional study in psychiatric secondary care outpatients.BMC psychiatry · 2023Article
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8 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundGPs frequently use 10-year-risk estimations of cardiovascular disease (CVD) to identify high- risk patients.
aimTo assess the performance of four models for predicting the 10-year risk of CVD in Dutch general practice. DESIGN AND
settingProspective cohort study. Routine data (2009- 2019) was used from 46 Dutch general practices linked to cause of death statistics.
methodThe outcome measures were fatal CVD for SCORE and first diagnosis of fatal or non- fatal CVD for SCORE fatal and non-fatal (SCORE- FNF), Globorisk-laboratory, and Globorisk-office. Model performance was assessed by examining discrimination and calibration.
resultsThe final number of patients for risk prediction was 1981 for SCORE and SCORE-FNF, 3588 for Globorisk-laboratory, and 4399 for Globorisk- office. The observed percentage of events was 18.6% (
conclusionWide eligibility criteria and a broad outcome measure contribute to the model applicability in daily practice. The restriction to fatal CVD outcomes of SCORE renders it less usable in routine Dutch general practice. The models seriously underestimate the 10-year risk of fatal plus non-fatal CVD in Dutch general practice. The poor model performance is possibly because of differences between patients that are eligible for risk prediction and the population that was used for model development. In addition, selection of higher-risk patients for CVD risk assessment by GPs may also contribute to the poor model performance.
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