Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36437905›Full record

ArticleLancet regional health. Americas2023

Impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of children ages 5-11 years on COVID-19 disease burden and resilience to new variants in the United States, November 2021-March 2022: A multi-model study.

Rebecca K Borchering, Luke C Mullany, Emily Howerton, Matteo Chinazzi, Claire P Smith, Michelle Qin, Nicholas G Reich, Lucie Contamin, John Levander, Jessica Kerr and 53 more

Open access · goldAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Lancet regional health. Americas, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 27 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
27citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
2.6field-weighted citation impact, top 8% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

27 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 27 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
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  5. Coordinating collaborative infectious disease modeling projects with the hubverse.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

63 authors at 16 institutions in 2 countries.

Rebecca K BorcheringThe Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.
Luke C MullanyJohns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratories Laurel, MD, USA.
Emily HowertonThe Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.
Matteo ChinazziNortheastern University, Boston, MA, USA.
Claire P SmithJohns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Michelle QinHarvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.
Nicholas G ReichUniversity of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, USA.
Lucie ContaminUniversity of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
John LevanderUniversity of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
Jessica KerrUniversity of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
J EspinoUniversity of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
Harry HochheiserUniversity of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
Kaitlin LovettJohns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratories Laurel, MD, USA.
Matt KinseyJohns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratories Laurel, MD, USA.
Kate TallaksenJohns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratories Laurel, MD, USA.
Shelby WilsonJohns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratories Laurel, MD, USA.
Lauren ShinJohns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratories Laurel, MD, USA.
Joseph C LemaitreÉcole polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland.
Juan Dent HulseJohns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Joshua KaminskyJohns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Elizabeth C LeeJohns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Alison L HillJohns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Jessica T DavisNortheastern University, Boston, MA, USA.
Kunpeng MuNortheastern University, Boston, MA, USA.
Xinyue XiongNortheastern University, Boston, MA, USA.
Ana Pastore Y PionttiNortheastern University, Boston, MA, USA.
Alessandro VespignaniNortheastern University, Boston, MA, USA.
Ajitesh SrivastavaUniversity of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
Przemyslaw PorebskiUniversity of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
Srini VenkatramananUniversity of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
Aniruddha AdigaUniversity of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
Bryan LewisUniversity of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
Brian KlahnUniversity of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
Joseph OuttenUniversity of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
Benjamin HurtUniversity of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
Jiangzhuo ChenUniversity of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
Henning MortveitUniversity of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
Amanda WilsonUniversity of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
Madhav MaratheUniversity of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
Stefan HoopsUniversity of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
Parantapa BhattacharyaUniversity of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
Dustin MachiUniversity of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
Shi ChenUniversity of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC, USA.
Rajib PaulUniversity of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC, USA.
Daniel JaniesUniversity of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC, USA.
Jean-Claude ThillUniversity of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC, USA.
Marta GalantiColumbia University, New York, NY, USA.
Teresa YamanaColumbia University, New York, NY, USA.
Sen PeiColumbia University, New York, NY, USA.
Jeffrey ShamanColumbia University, New York, NY, USA.
Guido EspañaUniversity of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA.
Sean CavanyUniversity of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA.
Sean MooreUniversity of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA.
Alex PerkinsUniversity of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA.
Jessica M HealyCDC COVID-19 Response Team, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Rachel B SlaytonCDC COVID-19 Response Team, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Michael A JohanssonCDC COVID-19 Response Team, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Matthew BiggerstaffCDC COVID-19 Response Team, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Katriona SheaThe Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.
Shaun A TrueloveJohns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Michael C RungeU.S. Geological Survey, Laurel, MD, USA.
Cécile ViboudFogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.
Justin LesslerUniversity of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.
Johns Hopkins University · USUniversity of Virginia · USNortheastern University · USUniversity of Pittsburgh · USCenters for Disease Control and Prevention · USUniversity of North Carolina at Charlotte · USUniversity of Notre Dame · USColumbia University · USPennsylvania State University · USÉcole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne · CHHarvard University Press · USNational Institutes of Health · USUnited States Geological Survey · USUniversity of Massachusetts Amherst · USUniversity of North Carolina at Chapel Hill · USUniversity of Southern California · US

Funding

MIDAS Coordination CenterU24GM132013 · NIGMS · UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH · PI HOCHHEISER, HARRY S · 2019 to 2023
$8.1M
Influenza Forecasting Center of Excellence at University of Massachusetts AmherstU01IP001122 · IP · UNIVERSITY OF MASSACHUSETTS AMHERST · PI REICH, NICHOLAS G · 2019 to 2023
$5.4M
Statistical methods for real-time forecasts of infectious disease: expanding dynamic time-series and machine learning approaches for pandemic scenariosR35GM119582 · NIGMS · UNIVERSITY OF MASSACHUSETTS AMHERST · PI Nicholas G Reich · 2016 to 2026
$4.8M
Systems Analysis of Social Pathways of Epidemics to Reduce Health DisparitiesR01GM109718 · NIGMS · VIRGINIA POLYTECHNIC INST AND ST UNIV · PI MARATHE, ACHLA, VULLIKANTI, ANIL · 2014 to 2022
$3.6M
RFA-IP-20-003, FluMod - Center for the Multiscale Modeling of Pandemic and seasonal Flu Prevention and ControlU01IP001137 · IP · NORTHEASTERN UNIVERSITY · PI VESPIGNANI, ALESSANDRO · 2020 to 2024
$3.4M
Quantifying Error Growth to Improve Infectious Disease Forecast AccuracyR01AI163023 · NIAID · COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY HEALTH SCIENCES · PI JEFFREY L SHAMAN · 2021 to 2026
$3.3M
Merging machine learning and mechanistic models to improve prediction and inference in emerging epidemicsR01GM140564 · NIGMS · UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL · PI EDWARDS, JESSIE, LESSLER, JUSTIN · 2021 to 2024
$1.8M
NCIRD CDC HHS U01 IP001122NCIRD CDC HHS U01 IP001137NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI163023NIGMS NIH HHS R01 GM109718NIGMS NIH HHS R01 GM140564NIGMS NIH HHS R35 GM119582NIGMS NIH HHS U24 GM132013
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub convened nine modeling teams to project the impact of expanding SARS-CoV-2 vaccination to children aged 5-11 years on COVID-19 burden and resilience against variant strains. Methods: Teams contributed state- and national-level weekly projections of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States from September 12, 2021 to March 12, 2022. Four scenarios covered all combinations of 1) vaccination (or not) of children aged 5-11 years (starting November 1, 2021), and 2) emergence (or not) of a variant more transmissible than the Delta variant (emerging November 15, 2021). Individual team projections were linearly pooled. The effect of childhood vaccination on overall and age-specific outcomes was estimated using meta-analyses. Findings: Assuming that a new variant would not emerge, all-age COVID-19 outcomes were projected to decrease nationally through mid-March 2022. In this setting, vaccination of children 5-11 years old was associated with reductions in projections for all-age cumulative cases (7.2%, mean incidence ratio [IR] 0.928, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.880-0.977), hospitalizations (8.7%, mean IR 0.913, 95% CI 0.834-0.992), and deaths (9.2%, mean IR 0.908, 95% CI 0.797-1.020) compared with scenarios without childhood vaccination. Vaccine benefits increased for scenarios including a hypothesized more transmissible variant, assuming similar vaccine effectiveness. Projected relative reductions in cumulative outcomes were larger for children than for the entire population. State-level variation was observed. Interpretation: Given the scenario assumptions (defined before the emergence of Omicron), expanding vaccination to children 5-11 years old would provide measurable direct benefits, as well as indirect benefits to the all-age U.S. population, including resilience to more transmissible variants. Funding: Various (see acknowledgments).

Indexed as

COVID-19ModelingSARS-CoV-2Scenario projectionVaccinationVariant emergence

Identifiers

PMID36437905
PMCPMC9679449
OpenAlexW4309556647

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.