Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36426919›Full record

SynthesisJMIR public health and surveillance2022

An Assessment of the Predictive Performance of Current Machine Learning-Based Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Models: Systematic Review.

Ying Gao, Shu Li, Yujing Jin, Lengxiao Zhou, Shaomei Sun, Xiaoqian Xu, Shuqian Li, Hongxi Yang, Qing Zhang, Yaogang Wang

Abstract readSystematic Review
In one paragraph

Synthesis in JMIR public health and surveillance, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
16citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

16 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  5. An interpretable machine learning model for preoperative prediction of renal mass malignancy.Clinical & translational oncology : official publication of the Federation of Spanish Oncology Societies and of the National Cancer Institute of Mexico · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Ying GaoHealth Management Center, Tianjin Medical University General Hospital, Tianjin, China.ORCID 0000-0002-0416-3179
Shu LiSchool of Management, Tianjin University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Tianjin, China.ORCID 0000-0002-3393-4390
Yujing JinHealth Management Center, Tianjin Medical University General Hospital, Tianjin, China.ORCID 0000-0003-2260-5601
Lengxiao ZhouHealth Management Center, Tianjin Medical University General Hospital, Tianjin, China.ORCID 0000-0002-2470-5086
Shaomei SunHealth Management Center, Tianjin Medical University General Hospital, Tianjin, China.ORCID 0000-0002-6567-4845
Xiaoqian XuHealth Management Center, Tianjin Medical University General Hospital, Tianjin, China.ORCID 0000-0003-0391-0651
Shuqian LiHealth Management Center, Tianjin Medical University General Hospital, Tianjin, China.ORCID 0000-0002-9990-7053
Hongxi YangDepartment of Bioinformatics, School of Basic Medical Sciences, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China.ORCID 0000-0002-3406-2803
Qing ZhangHealth Management Center, Tianjin Medical University General Hospital, Tianjin, China.ORCID 0000-0002-8377-4057
Yaogang WangSchool of Public Health, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China.ORCID 0000-0002-7325-0663

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundSeveral studies have explored the predictive performance of machine learning-based breast cancer risk prediction models and have shown controversial conclusions. Thus, the performance of the current machine learning-based breast cancer risk prediction models and their benefits and weakness need to be evaluated for the future development of feasible and efficient risk prediction models.

objectiveThe aim of this review was to assess the performance and the clinical feasibility of the currently available machine learning-based breast cancer risk prediction models.

methodsWe searched for papers published until June 9, 2021, on machine learning-based breast cancer risk prediction models in PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science. Studies describing the development or validation models for predicting future breast cancer risk were included. The Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) was used to assess the risk of bias and the clinical applicability of the included studies. The pooled area under the curve (AUC) was calculated using the DerSimonian and Laird random-effects model.

resultsA total of 8 studies with 10 data sets were included. Neural network was the most common machine learning method for the development of breast cancer risk prediction models. The pooled AUC of the machine learning-based optimal risk prediction model reported in each study was 0.73 (95% CI 0.66-0.80; approximate 95% prediction interval 0.56-0.96), with a high level of heterogeneity between studies (Q=576.07, I

conclusionsOur review shows that the current machine learning-based breast cancer risk prediction models have some technical pitfalls and that their clinical feasibility and reliability are unsatisfactory.

Indexed as

Breast NeoplasmsFemaleHumansMachine LearningReproducibility of ResultsRisk Assessmentbreast cancercancercancer researchmachine learningmeta-analysisoncologyreviewrisk modelrisk predictionsystemic review

Identifiers

PMID36426919
PMCPMC9837707

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.