Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36425099›Full record

ArticleFrontiers in medicine2022

Mathematical appraisal of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron epidemic outbreak in unprecedented Shanghai lockdown.

Minghao Jiang, Hongxin Yin, Shiyan Zhang, Guoyu Meng, Geng Wu

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Frontiers in medicine, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Minghao JiangShanghai Institute of Hematology, State Key Laboratory of Medical Genomics, National Research Center for Translational Medicine, Rui-Jin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine and School of Life Sciences and Biotechnology, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China.
Hongxin YinShanghai Institute of Hematology, State Key Laboratory of Medical Genomics, National Research Center for Translational Medicine, Rui-Jin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine and School of Life Sciences and Biotechnology, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China.
Shiyan ZhangShanghai Institute of Hematology, State Key Laboratory of Medical Genomics, National Research Center for Translational Medicine, Rui-Jin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine and School of Life Sciences and Biotechnology, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China.
Guoyu MengShanghai Institute of Hematology, State Key Laboratory of Medical Genomics, National Research Center for Translational Medicine, Rui-Jin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine and School of Life Sciences and Biotechnology, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China.
Geng WuState Key Laboratory of Microbial Metabolism, School of Life Sciences and Biotechnology, The Joint International Research Laboratory of Metabolic and Developmental Sciences, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The SARS-CoV-2 Omicron outbreak is ongoing in Shanghai, home to 25 million population. Here, we presented a novel mathematical model to evaluate the Omicron spread and Zero-COVID strategy. Our model provided important parameters, the average quarantine ratio, the detection interval from being infected to being tested positive, and the spreading coefficient to understand the epidemic progression better. Moreover, we found that the key to a relatively accurate long-term forecast was to take the variation/relaxation of the parameters into consideration based on the flexible execution of the quarantine policy. This allowed us to propose the criteria for estimating the parameters and outcome for the ending stage that is likely to take place in late May. Altogether, this model helped to give a correct mathematical appraisal of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron outbreak under the strict Zero-COVID policy in China.

Indexed as

Omicron variantquarantine ratioSARS-CoV-2Shanghai lockdowntime-delayed differentiation equation modelZero-COVID

Identifiers

PMID36425099
PMCPMC9679533

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.