ArticleViruses2022
Predicting the Trajectory of Replacements of SARS-CoV-2 Variants Using Relative Reproduction Numbers.
Article in Viruses, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed.
- Research Trends in HIV-Associated Nephropathy (HIVAN) from 2015 to 2025: A Bibliometric Analysis Using CiteSpace.HIV/AIDS (Auckland, N.Z.) · 2026Review
- Frequency dynamics predict viral fitness, antigenic relationships and epidemic growth.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Forecasting influenza A pandemic lineage dominance in the United States using relative reproduction rates.Virus evolution · 2025Article
- Spatiotemporal dynamics and epidemiological impact of SARS-CoV-2 XBB lineage dissemination in Brazil in 2023.Microbiology spectrum · 2024Article
- Comparative epidemic expansion of SARS-CoV-2 variants Delta and Omicron in the Brazilian State of Amazonas.Nature communications · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
New variants of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) with high effective reproduction numbers are continuously being selected by natural selection. To establish effective control measures for new variants, it is crucial to know their transmissibility and replacement trajectory in advance. In this paper, we conduct retrospective prediction tests for the variant replacement from Alpha to Delta in England, using the relative reproduction numbers of Delta with respect to Alpha estimated from partial observations. We found that once Delta's relative frequency reached 0.15, the date when the relative frequency of Delta would reach 0.90 was predicted with maximum absolute prediction errors of three days. This means that the time course of the variant replacement could be accurately predicted from early observations. Together with the estimated relative reproduction number of a new variant with respect to old variants, the predicted replacement timing will be crucial information for planning control strategies against the new variant.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.