Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36418976›Full record

ArticleBMC medical research methodology2022

Using a cohort study of diabetes and peripheral artery disease to compare logistic regression and machine learning via random forest modeling.

Andrea M Austin, Niveditta Ramkumar, Barbara Gladders, Jonathan A Barnes, Mark A Eid, Kayla O Moore, Mark W Feinberg, Mark A Creager, Marc Bonaca, Philip P Goodney

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC medical research methodology, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
15citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
6.8field-weighted citation impact, top 2% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

15 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 34 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.

Andrea M AustinThe Dartmouth Institute for Health Policy and Clinical Practice, Geisel School of Medicine at Dartmouth, Hanover, NH, USA.
Niveditta RamkumarThe Dartmouth Institute for Health Policy and Clinical Practice, Geisel School of Medicine at Dartmouth, Hanover, NH, USA.
Barbara GladdersHeart and Vascular Center, Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center, Lebanon, NH, 03756, USA.
Jonathan A BarnesHeart and Vascular Center, Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center, Lebanon, NH, 03756, USA.
Mark A EidHeart and Vascular Center, Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center, Lebanon, NH, 03756, USA.
Kayla O MooreHeart and Vascular Center, Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center, Lebanon, NH, 03756, USA.
Mark W FeinbergDepartment of Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Cardiovascular Division, Boston, MA, USA.
Mark A CreagerHeart and Vascular Center, Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center, Lebanon, NH, 03756, USA.
Marc BonacaUniversity of Colorado Medical Center, Denver, CO, USA.
Philip P GoodneyThe Dartmouth Institute for Health Policy and Clinical Practice, Geisel School of Medicine at Dartmouth, Hanover, NH, USA. Philip.P.Goodney@hitchcock.org.
Dartmouth–Hitchcock Medical Center · USDartmouth Institute for Health Policy and Clinical Practice · USHarvard University · USUniversity of Colorado Boulder · US

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThis study illustrates the use of logistic regression and machine learning methods, specifically random forest models, in health services research by analyzing outcomes for a cohort of patients with concomitant peripheral artery disease and diabetes mellitus.

methodsCohort study using fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries in 2015 who were newly diagnosed with peripheral artery disease and diabetes mellitus. Exposure variables include whether patients received preventive measures in the 6 months following their index date: HbA1c test, foot exam, or vascular imaging study. Outcomes include any reintervention, lower extremity amputation, and death. We fit both logistic regression models as well as random forest models.

resultsThere were 88,898 fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries diagnosed with peripheral artery disease and diabetes mellitus in our cohort. The rate of preventative treatments in the first six months following diagnosis were 52% (n = 45,971) with foot exams, 43% (n = 38,393) had vascular imaging, and 50% (n = 44,181) had an HbA1c test. The directionality of the influence for all covariates considered matched those results found with the random forest and logistic regression models. The most predictive covariate in each approach differs as determined by the t-statistics from logistic regression and variable importance (VI) in the random forest model. For amputation we see age 85 + (t = 53.17) urban-residing (VI = 83.42), and for death (t = 65.84, VI = 88.76) and reintervention (t = 34.40, VI = 81.22) both models indicate age is most predictive.

conclusionsThe use of random forest models to analyze data and provide predictions for patients holds great potential in identifying modifiable patient-level and health-system factors and cohorts for increased surveillance and intervention to improve outcomes for patients. Random forests are incredibly high performing models with difficult interpretation most ideally suited for times when accurate prediction is most desirable and can be used in tandem with more common approaches to provide a more thorough analysis of observational data.

Indexed as

Diabetes MellitusPeripheral Arterial DiseaseAgedAged, 80 and overCohort StudiesGlycated HemoglobinHumansLogistic ModelsMachine LearningMedicareUnited StatesGlycated Hemoglobinamputationcritical limb ischemiadiabetesmachine learningRandom forestreintervention

Identifiers

PMID36418976
PMCPMC9685056
OpenAlexW4309884282

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.