ArticlePLoS computational biology2022
Trends in SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence during England's roadmap out of lockdown, January to July 2021.
Article in PLoS computational biology, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
11 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission: rapid review of evidence from Italy, the United States, the United Kingdom, and China.Frontiers in public health · 2024Pooled it
- Effectiveness of social distancing measures and lockdowns for reducing transmission of COVID-19 in non-healthcare, community-based settings.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2023Pooled it
- Strategies to Increase Response Rate and Reduce Nonresponse Bias in Population Health Research: Analysis of a Series of Randomized Controlled Experiments during a Large COVID-19 Study.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2025Trial
- Understanding and addressing the obstacles to a trial of face masks in schools: a mixed-methods feasibility study.Pilot and feasibility studies · 2026Article
- The importance of playing the long game when it comes to pandemic surveillance.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Biases in Routine Influenza Surveillance Indicators Used to Monitor Infection Incidence and Recommendations for Improvement.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2024Article
- Inferring community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the United Kingdom using the ONS COVID-19 Infection Survey.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Article
- Key Challenges for Respiratory Virus Surveillance while Transitioning out of Acute Phase of COVID-19 Pandemic.Emerging infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Characteristics and predictors of persistent symptoms post-COVID-19 in children and young people: a large community cross-sectional study in England.Archives of disease in childhood · 2023Article
- Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infection hospitalisation and infection fatality ratios over 23 months in England.PLoS biology · 2023Article
- Design and Implementation of a National SARS-CoV-2 Monitoring Program in England: REACT-1 Study.American journal of public health · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
14 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundFollowing rapidly rising COVID-19 case numbers, England entered a national lockdown on 6 January 2021, with staged relaxations of restrictions from 8 March 2021 onwards.
aimWe characterise how the lockdown and subsequent easing of restrictions affected trends in SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence.
methodsOn average, risk of infection is proportional to infection prevalence. The REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study is a repeat cross-sectional study of over 98,000 people every round (rounds approximately monthly) that estimates infection prevalence in England. We used Bayesian P-splines to estimate prevalence and the time-varying reproduction number (Rt) nationally, regionally and by age group from round 8 (beginning 6 January 2021) to round 13 (ending 12 July 2021) of REACT-1. As a comparator, a separate segmented-exponential model was used to quantify the impact on Rt of each relaxation of restrictions.
resultsFollowing an initial plateau of 1.54% until mid-January, infection prevalence decreased until 13 May when it reached a minimum of 0.09%, before increasing until the end of the study to 0.76%. Following the first easing of restrictions, which included schools reopening, the reproduction number Rt increased by 82% (55%, 108%), but then decreased by 61% (82%, 53%) at the second easing of restrictions, which was timed to match the Easter school holidays. Following further relaxations of restrictions, the observed Rt increased steadily, though the increase due to these restrictions being relaxed was offset by the effects of vaccination and also affected by the rapid rise of Delta. There was a high degree of synchrony in the temporal patterns of prevalence between regions and age groups.
conclusionHigh-resolution prevalence data fitted to P-splines allowed us to show that the lockdown was effective at reducing risk of infection with school holidays/closures playing a significant part.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.