ArticleEpidemiologia (Basel, Switzerland)2021
Transmission Dynamics and Short-Term Forecasts of COVID-19: Nepal 2020/2021.
Article in Epidemiologia (Basel, Switzerland), 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
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7 citing papers in PubMed.
- Impact of COVID-19 among women seeking abortion services in Nepal: results from a longitudinal study.Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique · 2025Article
- GrowthPredict: A toolbox and tutorial-based primer for fitting and forecasting growth trajectories using phenomenological growth models.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Study of optimal vaccination strategies for early COVID-19 pandemic using an age-structured mathematical model: A case study of the USA.Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE · 2023Article
- A Trendline and Predictive Analysis of the First-Wave COVID-19 Infections in Malta.Epidemiologia (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Article
- Importation, Local Transmission, and Model Selection in Estimating the Transmissibility of COVID-19: The Outbreak in Shaanxi Province of China as a Case Study.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2022Article
- Participatory Approach to Develop Evidence-Based Clinical Ethics Guidelines for the Care of COVID-19 Patients: A Mixed Method Study From Nepal.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
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5 authors.
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Abstract
Nepal was hard hit by a second wave of COVID-19 from April-May 2021. We investigated the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 at the national and provincial levels by using data on laboratory-confirmed RT-PCR positive cases from the official national situation reports. We performed 8 week-to-week sequential forecasts of 10-days and 20-days at national level using three dynamic phenomenological growth models from 5 March 2021-22 May 2021. We also estimated effective and instantaneous reproduction numbers at national and provincial levels using established methods and evaluated the mobility trends using Google's mobility data. Our forecast estimates indicated a declining trend of COVID-19 cases in Nepal as of June 2021. Sub-epidemic and Richards models provided reasonable short-term projections of COVID-19 cases based on standard performance metrics. There was a linear pattern in the trajectory of COVID-19 incidence during the first wave (deceleration of growth parameter (
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