Sustaining productivity gains in the face of climate change: A research agenda for US wheat.

Wheat is a globally important crop and one of the "big three" US field crops. But unlike the other two (maize and soybean), in the United States its development is commercially unattractive, and so its breeding takes place primarily in public universities. Troublingly, the incentive structures within these universities may be hindering genetic improvement just as climate change is complicating breeding efforts. "Business as usual" in the US public wheat-breeding infrastructure may not sustain productivity increases. To address this concern, we held a multidisciplinary conference in which researchers from 12 US (public) universities and one European university shared the current state of knowledge in their disciplines, aired concerns, and proposed initiatives that could facilitate maintaining genetic improvement of wheat in the face of climate change. We discovered that climate-change-oriented breeding efforts are currently considered too risky and/or costly for most university wheat breeders to undertake, leading to a relative lack of breeding efforts that focus on abiotic stressors such as drought and heat. We hypothesize that this risk/cost burden can be reduced through the development of appropriate germplasm, relevant screening mechanisms, consistent germplasm characterization, and innovative models predicting the performance of germplasm under projected future climate conditions. However, doing so will require coordinated, longer-term, inter-regional efforts to generate phenotype data, and the modification of incentive structures to consistently reward such efforts.