Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36416134›Full record

ArticleRheumatology (Oxford, England)2023

Machine learning identifies a profile of inadequate responder to methotrexate in rheumatoid arthritis.

Julien Duquesne, Vincent Bouget, Paul Henry Cournède, Bruno Fautrel, Francis Guillemin, Pascal H P de Jong, Judith W Heutz, Marloes Verstappen, Annette H M van der Helm-van Mil, Xavier Mariette and 1 more

Open access · bronzeAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Rheumatology (Oxford, England), 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
20citing papers in PubMed
4.4field-weighted citation impact, top 5% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

20 citing papers in PubMed, 27 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Review
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Observational
  5. Artificial Intelligence in Rheumatology: Quo Vadis?Mediterranean journal of rheumatology · 2025
    Article
  6. Association ofPharmaceuticals (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025
    Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Predicting abatacept retention using machine learning.Arthritis research & therapy · 2025
    Observational
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  11. Review
  12. Article
  13. Review
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  15. Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors at 6 institutions in 2 countries.

Julien DuquesneScienta Lab, Paris, France.ORCID 0000-0003-1741-0201
Vincent BougetScienta Lab, Paris, France.ORCID 0000-0002-9846-1942
Paul Henry CournèdeCentraleSupélec, Lab of Mathematics and Computer Science (MICS), Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France.
Bruno FautrelGroupe Hospitalier Pitié Salpêtrière, Service de Rhumatologie, Sorbonne Université - Assistance Publique Hôpitaux de Paris, Paris, France.
Francis GuilleminAPEMAC, Université de Lorraine, Nancy, France.
Pascal H P de JongDepartment of Rheumatology, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Judith W HeutzDepartment of Rheumatology, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Marloes VerstappenDepartment of Rheumatology, Leiden University Medical Centre, Leiden, The Netherlands.
Annette H M van der Helm-van MilDepartment of Rheumatology, Leiden University Medical Centre, Leiden, The Netherlands.
Xavier MarietteDepartment of Rheumatology, Université Paris Saclay, INSERM UMR 1184, Hôpital Bicêtre, Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Paris, FHU CARE, Le Kremlin Bicêtre, France.ORCID 0000-0002-4244-5417
Samuel BitounDepartment of Rheumatology, Université Paris Saclay, INSERM UMR 1184, Hôpital Bicêtre, Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Paris, FHU CARE, Le Kremlin Bicêtre, France.ORCID 0000-0003-0891-2269
Inserm · FRErasmus MC · NLLaboratoire de Recherche Scientifique · FRLeiden University Medical Center · NLInterdisciplinarité en Santé Publique Interventions et Instruments de mesure complexes – Région Est · FRUniversité Paris-Saclay · FR

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivesAround 30% of patients with RA have an inadequate response to MTX. We aimed to use routine clinical and biological data to build machine learning models predicting EULAR inadequate response to MTX and to identify simple predictive biomarkers.

methodsModels were trained on RA patients fulfilling the 2010 ACR/EULAR criteria from the ESPOIR and Leiden EAC cohorts to predict the EULAR response at 9 months (± 6 months). Several models were compared on the training set using the AUROC. The best model was evaluated on an external validation cohort (tREACH). The model's predictions were explained using Shapley values to extract a biomarker of inadequate response.

resultsWe included 493 therapeutic sequences from ESPOIR, 239 from EAC and 138 from tREACH. The model selected DAS28, Lymphocytes, Creatininemia, Leucocytes, AST, ALT, swollen joint count and corticosteroid co-treatment as predictors. The model reached an AUROC of 0.72 [95% CI (0.63, 0.80)] on the external validation set, where 70% of patients were responders to MTX. Patients predicted as inadequate responders had only 38% [95% CI (20%, 58%)] chance to respond and using the algorithm to decide to initiate MTX would decrease inadequate-response rate from 30% to 23% [95% CI: (17%, 29%)]. A biomarker was identified in patients with moderate or high activity (DAS28 > 3.2): patients with a lymphocyte count superior to 2000 cells/mm3 are significantly less likely to respond.

conclusionOur study highlights the usefulness of machine learning in unveiling subgroups of inadequate responders to MTX to guide new therapeutic strategies. Further work is needed to validate this approach.

Indexed as

Antirheumatic AgentsArthritis, RheumatoidBiomarkersDrug Therapy, CombinationHumansMethotrexateTreatment OutcomeAntirheumatic AgentsBiomarkersMethotrexatebiomarkermachine learningMTXRAtreatment response

Identifiers

PMID36416134
PMCPMC10321123
OpenAlexW4309728352

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.