ArticleEpidemics2022
Correlation between times to SARS-CoV-2 symptom onset and secondary transmission undermines epidemic control efforts.
Article in Epidemics, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed.
- Generation time in a discrete epidemic model with asymptomatic carriers: beyond geometric waiting times.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2027Article
- Public holidays increased the transmission of COVID-19 in Japan, 2020-2021: a mathematical modelling study.Epidemiology and health · 2024Article
- Epidemiological inference for emerging viruses using segregating sites.Nature communications · 2023Article
- A comparative analysis of epidemiological characteristics of MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 in Saudi Arabia.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2022Article
- Predicting the effective reproduction number of COVID-19: inference using human mobility, temperature, and risk awareness.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections have been associated with substantial presymptomatic transmission, which occurs when the generation interval-the time between infection of an individual with a pathogen and transmission of the pathogen to another individual-is shorter than the incubation period-the time between infection and symptom onset. We collected a dataset of 257 SARS-CoV-2 transmission pairs in Japan during 2020 and jointly estimated the mean incubation period of infectors (4.8 days, 95 % CrI: 4.4-5.1 days), mean generation interval to when they infect others (4.3 days, 95 % credible interval [CrI]: 4.0-4.7 days), and the correlation (Kendall's tau: 0.5, 95 % CrI: 0.4-0.6) between these two epidemiological parameters. Our finding of a positive correlation and mean generation interval shorter than the mean infector incubation period indicates ample infectiousness before symptom onset and suggests that reliance on isolation of symptomatic COVID-19 cases as a focal point of control efforts is insufficient to address the challenges posed by SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics.
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