ArticleBMC public health2022
Model-informed COVID-19 exit strategy with projections of SARS-CoV-2 infections generated by variants in the Republic of Korea.
Article in BMC public health, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
- Age, period, and cohort effects of Clonorchis sinensis infection prevalence in the Republic of Korea: Insights and projections.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2024Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundWith the prompt administration of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines, highly vaccinated countries have begun to lift their stringent control measures. However, considering the spread of highly transmissible new variants, resuming socio-economic activities may lead to the resurgence of incidence, particularly in nations with a low proportion of individuals who have natural immunity. Here, we aimed to quantitatively assess an optimal COVID-19 exit strategy in the Republic of Korea, where only a small number of cumulative incidences have been recorded as of September 2021, comparing epidemiological outcomes via scenario analysis.
methodsA discrete-time deterministic compartmental model structured by age group was used, accounting for the variant-specific transmission dynamics and the currently planned nationwide vaccination. All parameters were calibrated using comprehensive empirical data obtained from the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency.
resultsOur projection suggests that tapering the level of social distancing countermeasures to the minimum level from November 2021 can efficiently suppress a resurgence of incidence given the currently planned nationwide vaccine roll-out. In addition, considering the spread of the Delta variant, our model suggested that gradual easing of countermeasures for more than 4 months can efficiently withstand the prevalence of severe COVID-19 cases until the end of 2022.
conclusionsOur model-based projections provide evidence-based guidance for an exit strategy that allows society to resume normal life while sustaining the suppression of the COVID-19 epidemic in countries where the spread of COVID-19 has been well controlled.
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