ArticleGlobal change biology2023
Non-linear loss of suitable wine regions over Europe in response to increasing global warming.
Article in Global change biology, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed, 60 citations in OpenAlex.
- Highly dynamic metabolic response of grapevine to water deficits reveals an adaptability to a wide range of climatic conditions.Food chemistry: X · 2026Article
- Combined omics data reveal multilevel response to water deficit in grapevine disease-resistant varieties.Frontiers in plant science · 2026Article
- Warming temperature reduces the risk of pre-harvest freezing injury and modifies variety suitability in the main winegrape-growing regions of China.Horticulture research · 2025Article
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- In Dabouki Land: Interdisciplinary notes on the cultural history of a landrace grape cultivar in Israel.Journal of arid environments · 2024Article
- Non-linear loss of suitable wine regions over Europe in response to increasing global warming.Global change biology · 2023Article
- Emerging biotechnologies and non-thermal technologies for winemaking in a context of global warming.Frontiers in microbiology · 2023Review
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Authors and funding
11 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
Evaluating the potential climatic suitability for premium wine production is crucial for adaptation planning in Europe. While new wine regions may emerge out of the traditional boundaries, most of the present-day renowned winemaking regions may be threatened by climate change. Here, we analyse the future evolution of the geography of wine production over Europe, through the definition of a novel climatic suitability indicator, which is calculated over the projected grapevine phenological phases to account for their possible contractions under global warming. Our approach consists in coupling six different de-biased downscaled climate projections under two different scenarios of global warming with four phenological models for different grapevine varieties. The resulting suitability indicator is based on fuzzy logic and is calculated over three main components measuring (i) the timing of the fruit physiological maturity, (ii) the risk of water stress and (iii) the risk of pests and diseases. The results demonstrate that the level of global warming largely determines the distribution of future wine regions. For a global temperature increase limited to 2°C above the pre-industrial level, the suitable areas over the traditional regions are reduced by about 4%/°C rise, while for higher levels of global warming, the rate of this loss increases up to 17%/°C. This is compensated by a gradual emergence of new wine regions out of the traditional boundaries. Moreover, we show that reallocating better-suited grapevine varieties to warmer conditions may be a viable adaptation measure to cope with the projected suitability loss over the traditional regions. However, the effectiveness of this strategy appears to decrease as the level of global warming increases. Overall, these findings suggest the existence of a safe limit below 2°C of global warming for the European winemaking sector, while adaptation might become far more challenging beyond this threshold.
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