Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36367013›Full record

ArticleEuro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin2022

Tracking the progressive spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in Italy, December 2021 to January 2022.

Paola Stefanelli, Filippo Trentini, Daniele Petrone, Alessia Mammone, Luigina Ambrosio, Mattia Manica, Giorgio Guzzetta, Valeria d'Andrea, Valentina Marziano, Agnese Zardini and 17 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 32 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
32citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

32 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

27 authors.

Paola StefanelliIstituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy.
Filippo TrentiniDondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policy, Bocconi University, Milan, Italy.
Daniele PetroneIstituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy.
Alessia MammoneHealth Prevention Directorate, Ministry of Health, Rome, Italy.
Luigina AmbrosioIstituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy.
Mattia ManicaEpilab-JRU, FEM-FBK Joint Research Unit, Trento, Italy.
Giorgio GuzzettaEpilab-JRU, FEM-FBK Joint Research Unit, Trento, Italy.
Valeria d'AndreaCenter for Health Emergencies, Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy.
Valentina MarzianoCenter for Health Emergencies, Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy.
Agnese ZardiniCenter for Health Emergencies, Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy.
Carla Molina Grane'University of Trento, Trento, Italy.
Marco AjelliLaboratory for Computational Epidemiology and Public Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Indiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, United States.
Angela Di MartinoIstituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy.
Flavia RiccardoIstituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy.
Antonino BellaIstituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy.
Monica Sane SchepisiHealth Prevention Directorate, Ministry of Health, Rome, Italy.
Francesco MaraglinoHealth Prevention Directorate, Ministry of Health, Rome, Italy.
Piero PolettiEpilab-JRU, FEM-FBK Joint Research Unit, Trento, Italy.
Anna Teresa PalamaraIstituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy.
Silvio BrusaferroIstituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy.
Giovanni RezzaHealth Prevention Directorate, Ministry of Health, Rome, Italy.
Patrizio PezzottiIstituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy.
Stefano MerlerEpilab-JRU, FEM-FBK Joint Research Unit, Trento, Italy.
Genomic SARS–CoV–2 National Surveillance Working GroupThe members of the Genomic SARS-CoV-2 National Surveillance Working Group are listed under Collaborators.
Italian Integrated Surveillance of COVID–19 Study GroupThe members of the Italian Integrated Surveillance of COVID-19 Study Group are listed under Collaborators.
Italian Integrated Surveillance of COVID-19 Study Group
Genomic SARS-CoV-2 National Surveillance Working Group

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

BackgroundThe SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern Omicron was first detected in Italy in November 2021.AimTo comprehensively describe Omicron spread in Italy in the 2 subsequent months and its impact on the overall SARS-CoV-2 circulation at population level.MethodsWe analyse data from four genomic surveys conducted across the country between December 2021 and January 2022. Combining genomic sequencing results with epidemiological records collated by the National Integrated Surveillance System, the Omicron reproductive number and exponential growth rate are estimated, as well as SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility.ResultsOmicron became dominant in Italy less than 1 month after its first detection, representing on 3 January 76.9-80.2% of notified SARS-CoV-2 infections, with a doubling time of 2.7-3.3 days. As of 17 January 2022, Delta variant represented < 6% of cases. During the Omicron expansion in December 2021, the estimated mean net reproduction numbers respectively rose from 1.15 to a maximum of 1.83 for symptomatic cases and from 1.14 to 1.36 for hospitalised cases, while remaining relatively stable, between 0.93 and 1.21, for cases needing intensive care. Despite a reduction in relative proportion, Delta infections increased in absolute terms throughout December contributing to an increase in hospitalisations. A significant reproduction numbers' decline was found after mid-January, with average estimates dropping below 1 between 10 and 16 January 2022.ConclusionEstimates suggest a marked growth advantage of Omicron compared with Delta variant, but lower disease severity at population level possibly due to residual immunity against severe outcomes acquired from vaccination and prior infection.

Indexed as

COVID-19SARS-CoV-2Base SequenceHumansVaccinationCOVID–19doubling timegenomic surveyomicronprevalenceSARS–CoV–2

Identifiers

PMID36367013
PMCPMC9650705

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.