Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36347838›Full record

SynthesisTranslational psychiatry2022

Predicting criminal and violent outcomes in psychiatry: a meta-analysis of diagnostic accuracy.

Devon Watts, Taiane de Azevedo Cardoso, Diego Librenza-Garcia, Pedro Ballester, Ives Cavalcante Passos, Felix H P Kessler, Jim Reilly, Gary Chaimowitz, Flavio Kapczinski

Open access · goldAbstract readSystematic ReviewMeta-Analysis
In one paragraph

Synthesis in Translational psychiatry, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
1.0field-weighted citation impact, top 24% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed, 7 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Article
  2. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors at 5 institutions in 2 countries.

Devon WattsDepartment of Psychiatry and Behavioural Neurosciences, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada.ORCID 0000-0002-8789-0266
Taiane de Azevedo CardosoDepartment of Psychiatry and Behavioural Neurosciences, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada.
Diego Librenza-GarciaDepartment of Psychiatry and Behavioural Neurosciences, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada.
Pedro BallesterDepartment of Psychiatry and Behavioural Neurosciences, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada.
Ives Cavalcante PassosLaboratory of Molecular Psychiatry, Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre (HCPA), Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0001-6407-8219
Felix H P KesslerCenter for Drug and Alcohol Research, HCPA, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil.
Jim ReillyDepartment of Electrical and Computer Engineering, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada.
Gary ChaimowitzDepartment of Psychiatry and Behavioural Neurosciences, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada.
Flavio KapczinskiDepartment of Psychiatry and Behavioural Neurosciences, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada. kapczinf@mcmaster.ca.
McMaster University · CAHospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre · BRInstituto Nacional de Ciência e Tecnologia de Neurociência Translacional · BRSt. Joseph’s Healthcare Hamilton · CAUniversidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul · BR

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Although reducing criminal outcomes in individuals with mental illness have long been a priority for governments worldwide, there is still a lack of objective and highly accurate tools that can predict these events at an individual level. Predictive machine learning models may provide a unique opportunity to identify those at the highest risk of criminal activity and facilitate personalized rehabilitation strategies. Therefore, this systematic review and meta-analysis aims to describe the diagnostic accuracy of studies using machine learning techniques to predict criminal and violent outcomes in psychiatry. We performed meta-analyses using the mada, meta, and dmetatools packages in R to predict criminal and violent outcomes in psychiatric patients (n = 2428) (Registration Number: CRD42019127169) by searching PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science for articles published in any language up to April 2022. Twenty studies were included in the systematic review. Overall, studies used single-nucleotide polymorphisms, text analysis, psychometric scales, hospital records, and resting-state regional cerebral blood flow to build predictive models. Of the studies described in the systematic review, nine were included in the present meta-analysis. The area under the curve (AUC) for predicting violent and criminal outcomes in psychiatry was 0.816 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 70.57-88.15), with a partial AUC of 0.773, and average sensitivity of 73.33% (95% CI: 64.09-79.63), and average specificity of 72.90% (95% CI: 63.98-79.66), respectively. Furthermore, the pooled accuracy across models was 71.45% (95% CI: 60.88-83.86), with a tau squared (τ

Indexed as

CriminalsMental DisordersPsychiatryAggressionArea Under CurveHumans

Identifiers

PMID36347838
PMCPMC9643469
OpenAlexW4308685890

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.