ArticleTravel medicine and infectious disease
Early estimates of the incidence trend and the reproductive number of the monkeypox epidemic in Brazil.
Article in Travel medicine and infectious disease. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Dynamics of global mpox epidemics, 1970-2025: a systematic review and meta-analysis of evolving transmissibility and intervention effects.BMJ global health · 2026Pooled it
- Decoding mpox: a systematic review and meta-analysis of the transmission and severity parameters of the 2022-2023 global outbreak.BMJ global health · 2025Pooled it
- A global systematic evidence review with meta-analysis of the epidemiological characteristics of the 2022 Mpox outbreaks.Infection · 2024Pooled it
- Epidemiological and sociodemographic profile of Mpox in Brazilian Amazon: a cross-sectional study.Infection · 2026Article
- Global transmission characteristics of mpox outbreaks: a systematic review and meta-analysis.EClinicalMedicine · 2025Article
- An evaluation of the preprints produced at the beginning of the 2022 mpox public health emergency.Research integrity and peer review · 2024Article
- Estimates of mpox effective reproduction number in Spain, April-August 2022.Epidemiology and infection · 2023Article
- Mitigation Measures to Control the Expected Mpox Outbreak in a Developing Country-Pakistani Scenario.Vaccines · 2023Article
- Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundWe aimed to calculate the weekly growth of the incidence and the effective reproductive number (Rt) of the 2022 Monkeypox epidemic during its introduction in Brazil.
methodWe described the case distribution in the country and calculated the incidence trend and the Rt in the four geographical states with the highest case reports. By using two regression approaches, count model and the Prais-Winsten, we calculated the relative incidence increase. Moreover, we estimated the Rt for the period between the 24th and the 50th days after the first official report, using a serial interval reported in another population and two alternative values (± 3 days).
resultsUp to August 22, 3.896 Monkeypox cases were confirmed in Brazil. The weekly incidence increases were between 37.5% (95% CI: 20.7% - 56,6%) and 82.1% (95% CI: 59.5%-107.8%), and all estimates of Rt were significantly higher than 1 in the four states analyzed.
conclusionsThe Monkeypox outbreak in Brazil is a significant public health emergency that requires coordinated public health strategies such as testing, contact tracing, and vaccination.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.