ArticleBMC public health2022
Application of logistic differential equation models for early warning of infectious diseases in Jilin Province.
Article in BMC public health, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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1 citing paper in PubMed, 5 citations in OpenAlex.
- Epidemiological characteristics and LSTM-based simulation of mumps incidence in Ningbo, China from 2005 to 2024.BMC public health · 2026Article
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Authors and funding
21 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundThere is still a relatively serious disease burden of infectious diseases and the warning time for different infectious diseases before implementation of interventions is important. The logistic differential equation models can be used for predicting early warning of infectious diseases. The aim of this study is to compare the disease fitting effects of the logistic differential equation (LDE) model and the generalized logistic differential equation (GLDE) model for the first time using data on multiple infectious diseases in Jilin Province and to calculate the early warning signals for different types of infectious diseases using these two models in Jilin Province to solve the disease early warning schedule for Jilin Province throughout the year.
methodsCollecting the incidence of 22 infectious diseases in Jilin Province, China. The LDE and GLDE models were used to calculate the recommended warning week (RWW), the epidemic acceleration week (EAW) and warning removed week (WRW) for acute infectious diseases with seasonality, respectively.
resultsFive diseases were selected for analysis based on screening principles: hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), shigellosis, mumps, Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD), and scarlet fever. The GLDE model fitted the above diseases better (0.80 ≤ R
conclusionsCompared to the LDE model, the GLDE model provides a better fit to the actual disease incidence data. The RWW appeared to be earlier when estimated with the GLDE model than the LDE model. In addition, the WRW estimated with the GLDE model were more lagged and had a longer warning time.
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