ArticleBMJ open2022
Use of a microsimulation method for assessing dynamics of smoking status and gains in life expectancy after quitting in a longitudinal cohort of US older adults.
Article in BMJ open, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- A gender perspective of smoking cessation's health and economic value in Jordanian women: using cost effectiveness model.Cost effectiveness and resource allocation : C/E · 2025Article
- Public Health Impact of FDA's Request for Additional Safety Data on Cytisine for Tobacco Cessation.JAMA health forum · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectivesPrevious studies were unable to estimate the dynamics of smoking status in the US elderly general population, and no study has assessed the benefit of quitting in terms of resultant gains in life expectancy. We proposed a novel method to estimate the per cent of quitting in remaining lifetime, successful quitting and relapse, as well as life expectancy by participants' baseline smoking status.
designLongitudinal cohort.
settingUS community-dwelling population.
participantsRespondents from the Medicare Health Outcome Survey Cohort 15 (baseline 2012, follow-up 2014). We included respondents who were aged ≥65 years and alive at the baseline and participated in the baseline survey (n=164 597).
resultsAmong daily smokers aged 65 years, 61% would attempt to quit during their remaining lifetime, and 31% would quit successfully. Among some days smokers aged 65 years, 69% would attempt to quit during their remaining lifetime, and 37% would quit successfully. Among recent ex-smokers aged 65 years, 53% would relapse. Life expectancy at age 65 years was 20.0 (SE=0.27), 17.2 (SE=0.30), 16.2 (SE=0.29) and 15.9 (SE=0.29) years for long time non-smokers, recent ex-smokers, some days smokers and daily smokers, respectively. Although recent ex-smokers had a higher 2-year mortality than current smokers, those who quit up to 77 years (77 years for men and 87 years for women) had a significantly longer (p<0.05) life expectancy. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the model assumptions had a relatively small impact on estimates with a maximum relative bias within ±7%.
conclusionsThis study provides detailed information regarding the dynamics of smoking status in an understudied and growing population and demonstrates the benefit of smoking cessation on life expectancy. Future research should focus on understanding specific predictors of smoking cessation.
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