Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36331437›Full record

ReviewInternational journal of epidemiology2022

Estimates of excess mortality for the five Nordic countries during the COVID-19 pandemic 2020-2021.

Kasper P Kepp, Jonas Björk, Vasilis Kontis, Robbie M Parks, Kristoffer T Bæk, Louise Emilsson, Tea Lallukka

Abstract readReview
In one paragraph

Review in International journal of epidemiology, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
18citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

18 citing papers in PubMed.

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  18. Assessing COVID-19-Related Excess Mortality Using Multiple Approaches-Italy, 2020-2021.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Kasper P KeppSection of Biophysical and Biomedicinal Chemistry, DTU Chemistry, Technical University of Denmark, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark.ORCID 0000-0002-6754-7348
Jonas BjörkClinical Studies Sweden, Forum South, Skåne University Hospital, Lund, Sweden.ORCID 0000-0003-1883-2000
Vasilis KontisFaculty of Medicine, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Robbie M ParksDepartment of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York City, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-7916-1717
Kristoffer T BækSection of Biophysical and Biomedicinal Chemistry, DTU Chemistry, Technical University of Denmark, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark.
Louise EmilssonDepartment of General Practice, Institute of Health and Society, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.ORCID 0000-0001-9137-2800
Tea LallukkaDepartment of Public Health, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.ORCID 0000-0003-3841-3129

Funding

Novel Assessments of the Health Impacts of Tropical CyclonesR00ES033742 · NIEHS · COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY HEALTH SCIENCES · PI PARKS, ROBBIE M · 2023 to 2025
$911k
Novel Assessments of the Health Impacts of Tropical CyclonesK99ES033742 · NIEHS · COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY HEALTH SCIENCES · PI PARKS, ROBBIE M · 2022 to 2023
$208k
NIEHS NIH HHS K99 ES033742NIEHS NIH HHS R00 ES033742
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundExcess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic is of major scientific and political interest.

methodsWe critically reviewed different estimates of all-cause excess mortality for the five Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden), which have been much studied during the COVID-19 pandemic, using the latest register data to discuss uncertainties and implications.

resultsWe show using back-calculation of expected deaths from Nordic all-cause deaths that the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model is a clear outlier in the compared estimates and likely substantially overestimates excess mortality of Finland and Denmark, and probably Sweden. Our review suggests a range of total Nordic excess deaths of perhaps 15 000-20 000, but results are sensitive to assumptions in the models as shown.

conclusionsWe document substantial heterogeneity and uncertainty in estimates of excess mortality. All estimates should be taken with caution in their interpretation as they miss detailed account of demographics, such as changes in the age group populations over the study period.

Indexed as

COVID-19PandemicsDenmarkFinlandHumansIcelandNorwayScandinavian and Nordic CountriesSwedenCOVID-19excess mortalityNordic countriesregister-based modellingreview

Identifiers

PMID36331437
PMCPMC9960481

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.