Using the changes of several simple anthropometric indices to predict the occurrence of metabolic syndrome: Findings from medically under-resourced communities in rural China.

Background: Various anthropometric indices have been proved to be useful to predict metabolic syndrome(MetS), but the association between changes in anthropometric indices and the onset of MetS is unclear. This study selected six indices that are easy to measure and calculate in daily life and evaluated the relationships. Methods: We established a prospective cohort in rural China during 2012-2013 and involved 5,221 participants without MetS. The follow-up visit was conducted in 2015 to repeat anthropometric indices measurements and assess MetS onset. Binary logistic regression model was used to calculate the association between changes in anthropometric indices and MetS onset. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was drawn to compare their abilities in MetS prediction. Results: Over a median follow-up time of 2.42 years, 1,367 participants (26.2%) developed MetS. The increase in all the six indices is associated with an increased risk of MetS. Changes in WC and WHtR are the strongest predictors, with a 5 cm increase in WC and a 0.025 increase in WHtR giving the best prediction of MetS onset. Conclusions: People should be aware of changes in these six anthropometric indices in daily life, as their increase is closely related to an increased risk of MetS, especially WC and WHtR. We recommend an increase of 5 cm in WC and 0.025 in WHtR as the optimal cut-off for the MetS prediction.